1944 Willow

Running Springs, CA 92382

$398,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,666 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Active · 175 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,646/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,087
• Tax + insurance: −$370
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-367/mo
• Annual: $-4,402/yr
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.95%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $111,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $398k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-367 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (33.5% below list).
• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($350k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $265k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#333 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 180 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $398k implies a 165% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.9% in Running Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.