1564 Route 23

Copake Lake, NY 12521

$529,000C-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,596 sqft · Built 1850 · SingleFamily · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,253/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,774
• Tax + insurance: −$606
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$893
• Net cashflow: $-20/mo
• Annual: $-240/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $148,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $529k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-240/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $525k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (19.6% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($513k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $425k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $53k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#841 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $305k; list at $529k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $148k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$91k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.4% in Copake Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.