1564 Route 23 · Copake Lake, NY 12521

$529,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,596 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1850 0.87 ac lot $331/sqft · at area comps Est $543k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

1850 Eyebrow Farmhouse rich in color, warmth and charm in a pastoral setting. This country home boasts 2 en-suites (one with a fireplace), wide-board floors, built-in bookcases galore, French doors and screened porch. Each parlor on the main level has a fireplace that adds to this home's appeal. The parlor adjacent to the powder room and currently an enclosed office, could be converted into an additional sleeping space. These owners love to entertain and the flow of the kitchen/gathering spaces lends itself to family and friends coming together. Detached two-car garage with bonus space above. Convenient to both trending Hudson, NY, and Great Barrington, MA. Two hours from NYC. 20 minutes to Amtrak. Come see what country living is all about in the Hudson Valley.

Key facts

• 0.87 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1850

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Driveway parking; Paved parking; garage faces front
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer; 200+ amp electrical service
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Clapboard, frame, plaster and wood siding construction; Stone foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Built on one story above grade
• Exterior features: Enclosed and screened porch; French doors; Landscaped lot with native plants

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Free-standing refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump (heating and cooling); Oil heating; Wall unit cooling
• Interior features: Built-in features and bookcases; Natural woodwork; Sauna; Three masonry wood-burning fireplaces (bedroom, family room, living room); Full unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $529k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-240/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $525k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $425k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.4% in Copake Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#841 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $53k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $148k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$91k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($513k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $305k; list at $529k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $425,299 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $542,508
• List price: $529,000
• Delta: -2.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $286,727
• Equity at exit: $476,565

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.71×
• Total profit: $845,157
• Equity at exit: $1,027,731

Cash invested: $148,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12521

• Home prices YoY: 23.4%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,253 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,774
• Tax from tax record: −$385 /mo · $4,624/yr
• Insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$893
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,278

Max offer price $525,464

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,250
• Closing costs: $15,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $529,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $529,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $529,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $529,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $529,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $529,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $529,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $529,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $529,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $529,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $529,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $529,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $529,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $529,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $529,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $529,000 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $529,000 Active 1374-char remark
18. 2020-07-17
    soldstatus $305,000
19. 2020-07-09
    soldstatus $305,000

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    1850 Eyebrow Farmhouse rich in color, warmth and charm in a pastoral setting. This country home boasts 2 en-suites (one with a fireplace), wide-board floors, built-in bookcases galore, French doors and screened porch. Each parlor on the main level has a fireplace that adds to this home's appeal. The parlor adjacent to the powder room and currently an enclosed office, could be converted into an additional sleeping space. These owners love to entertain and the flow of the kitchen/gathering spaces lends itself to family and friends coming together. Detached two-car garage with bonus space above. Convenient to both trending Hudson, NY, and Great Barrington, MA. Two hours from NYC. 20 minutes to Amtrak. Come see what country living is all about in the Hudson Valley.

20. 2020-02-23
    listed $305,000

    Show marketing remark (772 chars)

    1850 Eyebrow Farmhouse rich in color, warmth and charm in a pastoral setting. This country home boasts 2 en-suites (one with a fireplace), wide-board floors, built-in bookcases galore, French doors and screened porch. Each parlor on the main level has a fireplace that adds to this home's appeal. The parlor adjacent to the powder room and currently an enclosed office, could be converted into an additional sleeping space. These owners love to entertain and the flow of the kitchen/gathering spaces lends itself to family and friends coming together. Detached two-car garage with bonus space above. Convenient to both trending Hudson, NY, and Great Barrington, MA. Two hours from NYC. 20 minutes to Amtrak. Come see what country living is all about in the Hudson Valley.

21. 2019-08-21
    listed $314,000
22. 2018-09-13
    soldstatus $279,000
23. 2006-05-08
    soldstatus $255,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,624 · $385/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,782 · $565/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,158/yr (+$180/mo · 46.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,632
• − Property taxes: −$4,624
• − Insurance: −$2,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,083
• − Management: −$4,083
• − Depreciation: −$15,389
• Taxable loss: −$9,420
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,261
• After-tax cash flow: $2,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taconic Hills Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628620
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $57,329
• Composite: 45.16/100
• National rank: #2676
• State rank: #335 of 590 in NY

Livability — Copake Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #841
• US rank: #16329

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,874

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 83.58%
• Current HPI: 441.0272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+107.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $529,000 HVCRMLS
• 2020-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $305,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-09 Sold (MLS) $305,000 HVCRMLS
• 2020-02-23 Listed $305,000 HVCRMLS
• 2019-08-21 Listed $314,000 HVCRMLS
• 2018-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $279,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,624 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.