2649 San Pablo Ave

Berkeley, CA 94702

$300,000B

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,688 sqft · Built 1964 · Condo · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,788/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$780
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,426
• Net cashflow: $2,510/mo
• Annual: $30,115/yr
• Cap rate: 16.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.85%
• DSCR: 2.60
• 1% rule: 2.26%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($30k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $300k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#74 in CA, #2,860 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Berkeley Unified (urban): math 61% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #175 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 42 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 2.0% in Berkeley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,788/mo this rent would consume 82% of the median local household income ($100k/yr) (locally 1183% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.