2649 San Pablo Ave · Berkeley, CA 94702

$300,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,688 sqft · Condo public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1964

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cozy & amp; Charming Condo in a Tri-plex building 2.3 miles from CAL Berkeley and minutes from Berkeley Bowl, Shops and Restaurants! Zoned for Live/Work, this condo is on a street corner, ground level with potential for both residential or a small business. Split level floors with solid concrete flooring, tiled and bamboo flooring. Spacious Kitchen and Bathroom with skylights allow for natural ambient lighting! Plenty of street parking with a dedicated car parking space per unit.

Key facts

• Tri-plex building
• Ground level
• Zoned for live/work

Tags

• TRI-PLEX BUILDING
• ZONED FOR LIVE/WORK
• GROUND LEVEL
• SPLIT LEVEL FLOORS
• SOLID CONCRETE FLOORING
• TILED AND BAMBOO FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($30k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $300k).
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 2.0% in Berkeley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#74 in CA, #2,860 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Berkeley Unified (urban): math 61% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #175 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 42 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,788/mo this rent would consume 82% of the median local household income ($100k/yr) (locally 1183% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $300,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.85%
• DSCR: 2.60
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $116,276
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $328,012
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Berkeley: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+78

Original CA rent control city; vacancy rent control after Costa Hawkins limits.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94702

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,788 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$780
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,426
• Net cashflow: $2,510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,612

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1316 Russell St Berkeley, CA	4.0	2.5	2200	$8,500	$3.86	1d	1	0.37mi
1235 Carrison St Berkeley, CA	6.0	4.0	2332	$1,950	$0.84	43d	1	0.45mi
1122 University Ave Berkeley, CA	5.0	1.0–4.0	1129	$6,420	$5.68	1d	20	0.78mi
1730 Francisco St Berkeley, CA	5.0	3.5	2250	$8,000	$3.56	24d	1	1.30mi
976 55th St Oakland, CA	4.0	3.0	2200	$5,495	$2.50	43d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $300,000 Active 485-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $81,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,517
• − Management: −$6,517
• − HOA: −$9,360
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable income: $27,535
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,608
• After-tax cash flow: $23,507/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Berkeley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604740
• Math proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,202
• Composite: 57.37/100
• National rank: #2288
• State rank: #175 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Berkeley

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #2860

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Berkeley, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 121,632
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,635
• Household income: $99,775
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1183.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 15% Asian 14% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1257.77%
• Current HPI: 327.4724
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.65%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B