33 Joe Traylor Rd

West Hattiesburg, MS 39402

$259,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,317 sqft · Built 2003 · Other · Active · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,806/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-311/mo
• Annual: $-3,735/yr
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.13%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $72,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-311 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (21.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (30.5% below list).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $181k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#16 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lamar County School District (rural): math 48% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #18 of 130 in MS (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bellevue Elementary School (math 43% / reading 45%, grade F, #100 of 375 statewide, top 27%, 1,124 students, 100% FRL); Oak Grove Middle School (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D+, #37 of 179 statewide, top 20%, 1,294 students, 100% FRL); Oak Grove High School (math 42% / reading 58%, grade D+, #19 of 197 statewide, top 10%, 1,777 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (57 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lamar County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.