33 Joe Traylor Rd · West Hattiesburg, MS 39402

$259,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,317 sqft · Other public records · 100 Days on market

Built 2003 $112/sqft · 20% below area Est $327k · 20% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this 1 owner estate home sitting on almost an acre in a great area of Oak Grove. Home features 3 bedroom, 2.5 baths, living room with high ceilings, closets everywhere, and every room is super sized (no wondering what sized bed you can fit in here!)!! The outside boast brick exterior, a HUGE back porch, nice big shop, level lot with lots of bushes and fruit trees. Home is vacant and easy to show. Seller will be putting a stove in the home at buyers request.

Key facts

• Big shop
• Brick exterior
• Level lot

Tags

• ALMOST AN ACRE
• BRICK EXTERIOR
• HUGE BACK PORCH
• BIG SHOP
• LEVEL LOT
• FRUIT TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-311 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (21.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (30.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#16 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar County School District (rural): math 48% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #18 of 130 in MS (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lamar County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,636 (30.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.13%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,886
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: -20.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-61,275
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-76,129
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39402

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 501
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,806 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,205/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,200

Max offer price $204,909

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-164	-5% $-238	+0% $-311	+5% $-385	+10% $-458
Rent	-10% $-454	-5% $-383	+0% $-311	+5% $-240	+10% $-169
Rate	-1.0pp $-180	-0.5pp $-245	base $-311	+0.5pp $-379	+1.0pp $-447

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22 Montrose Ct Hattiesburg, MS	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,200	$1.38	22d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,900 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $259,900 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $259,900 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,900 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $259,900 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,900 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,900 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $259,900 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $259,900 Active 78 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    price $259,900 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Come check out this 1 owner estate home sitting on almost an acre in a great area of Oak Grove. Home features 3 bedroom, 2.5 baths, living room with high ceilings, closets everywhere, and every room is super sized (no wondering what sized bed you can fit in here!)!! The outside boast brick exterior, a HUGE back porch, nice big shop, level lot with lots of bushes and fruit trees. Home is vacant and easy to show. Seller will be putting a stove in the home at buyers request.

19. 2026-04-29
    price $259,900 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Come check out this 1 owner estate home sitting on almost an acre in a great area of Oak Grove. Home features 3 bedroom, 2.5 baths, living room with high ceilings, closets everywhere, and every room is super sized (no wondering what sized bed you can fit in here!)!! The outside boast brick exterior, a HUGE back porch, nice big shop, level lot with lots of bushes and fruit trees. Home is vacant and easy to show. Seller will be putting a stove in the home at buyers request.

20. 2026-04-14
    price $265,000 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Come check out this 1 owner estate home sitting on almost an acre in a great area of Oak Grove. Home features 3 bedroom, 2.5 baths, living room with high ceilings, closets everywhere, and every room is super sized (no wondering what sized bed you can fit in here!)!! The outside boast brick exterior, a HUGE back porch, nice big shop, level lot with lots of bushes and fruit trees. Home is vacant and easy to show. Seller will be putting a stove in the home at buyers request.

21. 2026-04-14
    price $265,000 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Come check out this 1 owner estate home sitting on almost an acre in a great area of Oak Grove. Home features 3 bedroom, 2.5 baths, living room with high ceilings, closets everywhere, and every room is super sized (no wondering what sized bed you can fit in here!)!! The outside boast brick exterior, a HUGE back porch, nice big shop, level lot with lots of bushes and fruit trees. Home is vacant and easy to show. Seller will be putting a stove in the home at buyers request.

22. 2026-03-13
    listed $270,000 Active 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Come check out this 1 owner estate home sitting on almost an acre in a great area of Oak Grove. Home features 3 bedroom, 2.5 baths, living room with high ceilings, closets everywhere, and every room is super sized (no wondering what sized bed you can fit in here!)!! The outside boast brick exterior, a HUGE back porch, nice big shop, level lot with lots of bushes and fruit trees. Home is vacant and easy to show. Seller will be putting a stove in the home at buyers request.

23. 2026-03-13
    listed $270,000 Active 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Come check out this 1 owner estate home sitting on almost an acre in a great area of Oak Grove. Home features 3 bedroom, 2.5 baths, living room with high ceilings, closets everywhere, and every room is super sized (no wondering what sized bed you can fit in here!)!! The outside boast brick exterior, a HUGE back porch, nice big shop, level lot with lots of bushes and fruit trees. Home is vacant and easy to show. Seller will be putting a stove in the home at buyers request.

24. 2025-02-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,205 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,205 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$3,205
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,734
• − Management: −$1,734
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$8,416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,020
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802400
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,742
• Composite: 40.77/100
• National rank: #3645
• State rank: #18 of 130 in MS

Livability — West Hattiesburg

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #5167

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lamar County · 44,620 people
• Metro: Hattiesburg, MS
• Population (ZIP): 44,620
• Household income: $75,220
• Rent vs Own: 39.6% rent · 60.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 864.0

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,826 people
• By 2030: 77,309 · +7.6%
• By 2040: 87,733 · +22.1%
• By 2050: 97,289 · +35.5%
• By 2075: 115,347 · +60.6%
• By 2100: 125,601 · +74.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.8) · D 25.0% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.0pp toward D · 2008: -55.8pp · 2024: -48.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.8 2020: R+46.9 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+55.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.41%
• Current HPI: 163.5142
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.37%
• Metro: Hattiesburg, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $259,900 HAAR
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $259,900 LBOR
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $265,000 LBOR
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $265,000 HAAR
• 2026-03-13 Listed $270,000 LBOR
• 2026-03-13 Listed $270,000 HAAR
• 2025-02-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,205 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.