410 E 1st St

Groveton, TX 75845

$99,500C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Pending · 211 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $920/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax + insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $33/mo
• Annual: $397/yr
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.42%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $27,860

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($397/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (7.5% below list).
• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($688 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#995 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Groveton ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #281 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Groveton J H-H S (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 428 students, 62% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 93% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.