410 E 1st St · Groveton, TX 75845

$99,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 211 Days on market

Built 1945 0.36 ac lot Est $100k · at est. ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This home sits on a large corner lot in the City of Groveton. Numerous outbuilding in the backyard which is fence on 2 sides. The home has hardwoods floors, spacious rooms and a 2 car carport. Great location, close to schools, churches, shopping and the downtown area.

Key facts

• Numerous outbuilding
• Large corner lot
• Great location

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• NUMEROUS OUTBUILDING
• FENCE ON 2 SIDES
• GREAT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($397/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#995 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Groveton ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #281 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Groveton J H-H S (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 428 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($688 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 93% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.42%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $99,568
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
410 E 1st St	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,016 (0%)	1mo	$99,500	$98	100
459 N N Main St	0.58mi	2/1.0	1,100 (+8%)	11mo	$145,000	$132	50
407 W 2nd St	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,084 (+7%)	19mo	$69,900	$64	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.41% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $21,716
• Equity at exit: $52,831

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $65,573
• Equity at exit: $88,367

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75845

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,565/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $878

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   price $99,500
3. 2026-03-04
   price $109,500
4. 2025-12-14
   price $119,500
5. 2025-09-26
   listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,565 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,821 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$256/yr (+$21/mo · 16.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 93% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$1,565
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$883
• − Management: −$883
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable loss: −$1,258
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$302
• After-tax cash flow: $699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Groveton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821900
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,375
• Composite: 37.76/100
• National rank: #4348
• State rank: #281 of 826 in TX

Livability — Groveton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #995
• US rank: #17710

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Groveton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,287

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,746 people
• By 2030: 13,333 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 12,542 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 11,942 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 10,871 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 9,784 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+61.3 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.41%
• Current HPI: 175.9686
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $99,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $109,500 HARMLS
• 2025-12-14 Price Changed $119,500 HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $125,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,565 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.