3001 Kellar Ave

Flint, MI 48504

$35,900C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $825/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$188
• Tax + insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $389/mo
• Annual: $4,668/yr
• Cap rate: 19.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.44%
• DSCR: 3.07
• 1% rule: 2.30%
• Cash to close: $10,052

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $36k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($825 rent vs $36k).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $33k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $248 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#196 in MI, #4,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Flint School District (urban): math 7% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #714 of 760 in MI (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 19.3% vs local median 11.5% in Flint — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.