10651 Flat Shoals Rd

Porterdale, GA 30016

$180,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,880/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $417/mo
• Annual: $5,008/yr
• Cap rate: 9.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.94%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $417 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#447 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Newton County (suburban): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 174 in GA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Middle Ridge Elementary School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #936 of 1,228 statewide, top 79%, 577 students, 85% FRL); Clements Middle School (math 6% / reading 17%, grade F, #424 of 470 statewide, top 90%, 754 students, 85% FRL); Alcovy High School (math 3% / reading 12%, grade F, #378 of 424 statewide, top 91%, 1,991 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 59% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,480 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Newton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $180k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 5.0% in Porterdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.