10651 Flat Shoals Rd · Porterdale, GA 30016

$180,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1980 0.46 ac lot Est $202k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath Brick Home on Nearly Half an Acre - Sold As-Is. Solid brick construction with great bones and room to add your vision; the property is just under 0.5 acres with ample space for gardening, pets, or future expansion. The second bath has already been renovated; the master bath and portions of the home need work. The interior of this home is a manufactured home; the title has been retired according to the Newton County Tax Assessor and is taxed as Real property. This sweet home is ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize and build equity. It is conveniently located close to schools, shopping, and major routes. Bring your contractor and imagination-opportunities like this are rare. Cash, conventional, or rehab financing preferred-showings by appointment.

Key facts

• Brick home
• Renovated bath
• Close to shopping

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• HALF AN ACRE
• SOLID BRICK CONSTRUCTION
• RENOVATED BATH
• AMPLE SPACE FOR GARDENING
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car garage; Two carport spaces; Total of four parking spaces; Garage and carport parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer (and other sewer noted); 220-volt electrical service; Cable, electricity, phone, and water available
• Home design: One-level home; Brick exterior (brick 4 sides); Shingle/composition roof; Property listed as fixer
• Construction: Brick construction; Concrete perimeter, brick/mortar, and block foundation; Built with brick 4 sides
• Exterior features: Rear stairs; Storage area; Other exterior features; Front yard fencing; Covered patio/porch; Deck; Front porch; Rear porch; Outbuilding, shed(s), and workshop on property; Asphalt road frontage on a county road

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Other surface counters; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Split bedroom plan
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bathroom with soaking tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; No shared/common walls; Accessible approach with ramp; Crawl space foundation access
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $417 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 5.0% in Porterdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#447 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Newton County (suburban): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 174 in GA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Middle Ridge Elementary School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #936 of 1,228 statewide, top 79%, 577 students, 85% FRL); Clements Middle School (math 6% / reading 17%, grade F, #424 of 470 statewide, top 90%, 754 students, 85% FRL); Alcovy High School (math 3% / reading 12%, grade F, #378 of 424 statewide, top 91%, 1,991 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 59% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 448 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,480 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $180k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.94%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $201,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
915 Navajo Trl	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,233 (+7%)	4mo	$235,000	$191	60
920 Navajo Trl	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,211 (+5%)	13mo	$230,000	$190	57
10214 Allen Dr SW	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-8%)	0mo	$163,000	$154	54
95 Hidden Pines Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-12%)	1mo	$230,000	$228	53
60 Mountain View Cir	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,285 (+12%)	14mo	$170,000	$132	50
10154 Allen Dr SW	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-8%)	6mo	$108,000	$102	50
10133 Morris Dr SW	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-8%)	4mo	$158,400	$150	49
220 Mountain View Cir	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	10mo	$230,000	$180	48
170 Hidden Pines Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,272 (+10%)	1mo	$237,000	$186	46
10152 Griffin Ln SW	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-8%)	13mo	$180,000	$170	43
890 Navajo Trl	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+13%)	15mo	$228,000	$175	41
945 Navajo Trl	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+13%)	13mo	$225,000	$172	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,838
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $20,993
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30016

• Home prices YoY: -8.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 448
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,880 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $583/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $417

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,351

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $519	-5% $468	+0% $417	+5% $366	+10% $315
Rent	-10% $269	-5% $343	+0% $417	+5% $492	+10% $566
Rate	-1.0pp $508	-0.5pp $463	base $417	+0.5pp $371	+1.0pp $323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Fleeta Dr Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,550	$1.12	6d	1	0.15mi
375 Stone Ridge Way Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,870	$1.27	6d	1	0.22mi
10154 Allen Dr SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	22d	1	0.68mi
10154 Allen Dr SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	6d	1	0.68mi
9161 Thrash St SW Covington, GA	4.0	2.0	1272	$1,481	$1.16	45d	1	0.85mi
9135 Jefferson Village Dr SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.5	1126	$1,736	$1.54	6d	1	0.99mi
9123 Jefferson Village Dr SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,750	$1.43	23d	1	1.01mi
8246 Collier St SW Covington, GA	3.0	1.0	1225	$1,300	$1.06	45d	1	1.14mi
65 Kenzi Way SW Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,000	$0.82	6d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $180,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 693-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $180,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $180,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $180,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (807 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath Brick Home on Nearly Half an Acre - Sold As-Is. Solid brick construction with great bones and room to add your vision; the property is just under 0.5 acres with ample space for gardening, pets, or future expansion. The second bath has already been renovated; the master bath and portions of the home need work. The interior of this home is a manufactured home; the title has been retired according to the Newton County Tax Assessor and is taxed as Real property. This sweet home is ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize and build equity. It is conveniently located close to schools, shopping, and major routes. Bring your contractor and imagination-opportunities like this are rare. Cash, conventional, or rehab financing preferred-showings by appointment.

18. 2026-05-19
    listed $180,000 New 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (807 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath Brick Home on Nearly Half an Acre - Sold As-Is. Solid brick construction with great bones and room to add your vision; the property is just under 0.5 acres with ample space for gardening, pets, or future expansion. The second bath has already been renovated; the master bath and portions of the home need work. The interior of this home is a manufactured home; the title has been retired according to the Newton County Tax Assessor and is taxed as Real property. This sweet home is ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize and build equity. It is conveniently located close to schools, shopping, and major routes. Bring your contractor and imagination-opportunities like this are rare. Cash, conventional, or rehab financing preferred-showings by appointment.

19. 2005-05-10
    soldstatus $87,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $583 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,656 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,073/yr (+$89/mo · 183.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,555
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$583
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,804
• − Management: −$1,804
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $2,144
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$514
• After-tax cash flow: $4,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton County
• NCES district ID: 1303930
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,768
• Composite: 19.2/100
• National rank: #8816
• State rank: #137 of 174 in GA

Livability — Porterdale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #447
• US rank: #21362

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Newton County · 104,393 people
• City population: 76
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 62,968
• Household income: $79,527
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1172.0

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,372 people
• By 2030: 124,234 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 135,550 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 145,309 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 166,843 · +40.9%
• By 2100: 175,800 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 29% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.3% · R 42.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 1.2pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+2.4 2012: D+2.0 2008: D+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.68%
• Current HPI: 317.5605
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+106.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $180,000 FMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $180,000 GAMLS
• 2005-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $583 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.