481 Avenue D

Lawn, TX 79530

$89,900B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Active · 181 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,098/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax + insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $236/mo
• Annual: $2,836/yr
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.27%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $25,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#972 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, employment D, crime F.
• Jim Ned CISD (rural): math 56% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #52 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lawn El (math 52% / reading 72%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 400 students, 34% FRL); Jim Ned Middle (math 60% / reading 62%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 373 students, 20% FRL); Jim Ned H S (math 42% / reading 72%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 457 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.