481 Avenue D · Lawn, TX 79530

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1935 0.32 ac lot $63/sqft · 26% below area Est $121k · 26% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming fixer-upper on a desirable corner lot in the Jim Ned School District. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home features generously sized rooms and a functional layout with great potential. Several updates have already been started, giving the next owner a head start on renovations and the opportunity to add their own finishing touches. Situated on a corner lot, the property offers added privacy and flexibility for future improvements. With large living spaces and solid bones, this home is ideal for investors, DIY enthusiasts, or buyers looking to create a personalized space in a sought-after school district.

Key facts

• Solid bones
• Added privacy
• Large living spaces

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• JIM NED SCHOOL DISTRICT
• ADDED PRIVACY
• LARGE LIVING SPACES
• SOLID BONES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#972 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, employment D, crime F.
• Jim Ned CISD (rural): math 56% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #52 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lawn El (math 52% / reading 72%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 400 students, 34% FRL); Jim Ned Middle (math 60% / reading 62%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 373 students, 20% FRL); Jim Ned H S (math 42% / reading 72%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 457 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.27%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $121,268
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -25.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
601 Main St	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,527 (+8%)	5mo	$110,000	$72	73
301 Avenue A	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,486 (+5%)	10mo	$175,000	$118	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $37,636
• Equity at exit: $52,902

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $99,995
• Equity at exit: $92,962

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79530

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,464/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $799

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $287	-5% $262	+0% $236	+5% $211	+10% $185
Rent	-10% $150	-5% $193	+0% $236	+5% $280	+10% $323
Rate	-1.0pp $282	-0.5pp $259	base $236	+0.5pp $213	+1.0pp $189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 178 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $89,900 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $89,900 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $89,900 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,900 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-04-06
    price $89,900 615-char remark

    Show marketing remark (615 chars)

    Charming fixer-upper on a desirable corner lot in the Jim Ned School District. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home features generously sized rooms and a functional layout with great potential. Several updates have already been started, giving the next owner a head start on renovations and the opportunity to add their own finishing touches. Situated on a corner lot, the property offers added privacy and flexibility for future improvements. With large living spaces and solid bones, this home is ideal for investors, DIY enthusiasts, or buyers looking to create a personalized space in a sought-after school district.

13. 2025-12-14
    listed $95,000 Active 615-char remark

    Show marketing remark (615 chars)

    Charming fixer-upper on a desirable corner lot in the Jim Ned School District. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home features generously sized rooms and a functional layout with great potential. Several updates have already been started, giving the next owner a head start on renovations and the opportunity to add their own finishing touches. Situated on a corner lot, the property offers added privacy and flexibility for future improvements. With large living spaces and solid bones, this home is ideal for investors, DIY enthusiasts, or buyers looking to create a personalized space in a sought-after school district.

14. 2024-06-21
    soldstatus
15. 2003-03-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,464 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,645 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$181/yr (+$15/mo · 12.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,464
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,054
• − Management: −$1,054
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $1,501
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$360
• After-tax cash flow: $2,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jim Ned CISD
• NCES district ID: 4824780
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,627
• Composite: 52.98/100
• National rank: #1525
• State rank: #52 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lawn

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #972
• US rank: #17240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawn, TX
• Population (ZIP): 436

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Pacific Islander 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.36%
• Current HPI: 152.4919
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $89,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-14 Listed $95,000 NTREIS
• 2024-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,464 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.