11 Richard Rd

Carmel, NY 10541

$579,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,874 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,036
• Tax + insurance: −$1,448
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,008
• Net cashflow: $-692/mo
• Annual: $-8,303/yr
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.12%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $162,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $579k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-692 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $457k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $480k (17.1% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($570k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $457k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mahopac Central School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #156 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $186k; list at $579k implies a 211% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 1.9% in Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.