11 Richard Rd · Carmel, NY 10541

$579,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,874 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1970 0.62 ac lot $309/sqft · 19% below area Est $718k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this move-in ready 3BR, 2BA home located in sought after Lake Casse! This home has been lovingly maintained, freshly painted and is ideal for relaxing, entertaining, and everyday living. Inside, you'll find a bright, comfortable and welcoming layout with newly refinished hardwood floors. On the main level, the bright & airy living room flows openly through the dining room into a dine-in-kitchen featuring stainless appliances, granite counter tops and access to the oversized deck overlooking the woods; perfect for entertaining and relaxing . Completing the upstairs is the primary bedroom with direct access to the updated full bathroom and 2 bright bedrooms. Downstairs, the bright and spacious family room features new flooring, fresh paint, a full bathroom and direct access to the rear yard. Adjacent to the heated garage is the laundry area and a heated flex space with countless uses; a workshop, gym, storage, studio, and more, and outside, there’s plenty of space for the kids to run and play. Conveniently located, close to schools, shopping, restaurants, trains, I-684 and Lake Casse where you can swim, play and have fun with all your non-motorized water toys. If you’re looking for a comfortable and welcoming home, neighborhood and community, this home is for you! Don't miss out; come see this home before it's gone!

Key facts

• 0.62 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $579k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-692 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $457k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $480k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $457k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 1.9% in Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mahopac Central School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #156 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($570k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $186k; list at $579k implies a 211% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.

Recommended offer $456,771 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.12%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $717,746
• List price: $579,000
• Delta: -19.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Richard Rd	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,998 (+7%)	4mo	$649,900	$325	81
15 Richard Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,708 (-9%)	6mo	$634,000	$371	75
144 Shear Hill Rd	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,978 (+6%)	9mo	$625,000	$316	62
69 Crafts Rd	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,990 (+6%)	9mo	$500,000	$251	53
19 Russ Rd	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,064 (+10%)	9mo	$537,500	$260	53
244 Shear Hill Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,812 (-3%)	10mo	$625,000	$345	51
88 Shear Hill Rd	0.34mi	3/1.5	2,116 (+13%)	11mo	$600,000	$284	48
82 Overlook Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5	2,000 (+7%)	13mo	$615,000	$308	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-137,522
• Equity at exit: $86,331

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-174,998
• Equity at exit: $50,061

Cash invested: $162,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10541

• Home prices YoY: -25.8%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,036
• Tax from tax record: −$1,206 /mo · $14,476/yr
• Insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,008
• Net cashflow: $-692

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,676

Max offer price $456,771

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-364	-5% $-528	+0% $-692	+5% $-856	+10% $-1,020
Rent	-10% $-1,071	-5% $-882	+0% $-692	+5% $-502	+10% $-313
Rate	-1.0pp $-400	-0.5pp $-545	base $-692	+0.5pp $-842	+1.0pp $-995

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $144,750
• Closing costs: $17,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
94 Baldwin Ln Mahopac, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$4,800	$3.00	44d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 1369-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1369 chars)

   Welcome to this move-in ready 3BR, 2BA home located in sought after Lake Casse! This home has been lovingly maintained, freshly painted and is ideal for relaxing, entertaining, and everyday living. Inside, you'll find a bright, comfortable and welcoming layout with newly refinished hardwood floors. On the main level, the bright & airy living room flows openly through the dining room into a dine-in-kitchen featuring stainless appliances, granite counter tops and access to the oversized deck overlooking the woods; perfect for entertaining and relaxing . Completing the upstairs is the primary bedroom with direct access to the updated full bathroom and 2 bright bedrooms. Downstairs, the bright and spacious family room features new flooring, fresh paint, a full bathroom and direct access to the rear yard. Adjacent to the heated garage is the laundry area and a heated flex space with countless uses; a workshop, gym, storage, studio, and more, and outside, there’s plenty of space for the kids to run and play. Conveniently located, close to schools, shopping, restaurants, trains, I-684 and Lake Casse where you can swim, play and have fun with all your non-motorized water toys. If you’re looking for a comfortable and welcoming home, neighborhood and community, this home is for you! Don't miss out; come see this home before it's gone!

2. 2026-04-17
   listed $579,000 Active 1369-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1369 chars)

   Welcome to this move-in ready 3BR, 2BA home located in sought after Lake Casse! This home has been lovingly maintained, freshly painted and is ideal for relaxing, entertaining, and everyday living. Inside, you'll find a bright, comfortable and welcoming layout with newly refinished hardwood floors. On the main level, the bright & airy living room flows openly through the dining room into a dine-in-kitchen featuring stainless appliances, granite counter tops and access to the oversized deck overlooking the woods; perfect for entertaining and relaxing . Completing the upstairs is the primary bedroom with direct access to the updated full bathroom and 2 bright bedrooms. Downstairs, the bright and spacious family room features new flooring, fresh paint, a full bathroom and direct access to the rear yard. Adjacent to the heated garage is the laundry area and a heated flex space with countless uses; a workshop, gym, storage, studio, and more, and outside, there’s plenty of space for the kids to run and play. Conveniently located, close to schools, shopping, restaurants, trains, I-684 and Lake Casse where you can swim, play and have fun with all your non-motorized water toys. If you’re looking for a comfortable and welcoming home, neighborhood and community, this home is for you! Don't miss out; come see this home before it's gone!

3. 2026-04-15
   historical $579,000 1369-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1369 chars)

   Welcome to this move-in ready 3BR, 2BA home located in sought after Lake Casse! This home has been lovingly maintained, freshly painted and is ideal for relaxing, entertaining, and everyday living. Inside, you'll find a bright, comfortable and welcoming layout with newly refinished hardwood floors. On the main level, the bright & airy living room flows openly through the dining room into a dine-in-kitchen featuring stainless appliances, granite counter tops and access to the oversized deck overlooking the woods; perfect for entertaining and relaxing . Completing the upstairs is the primary bedroom with direct access to the updated full bathroom and 2 bright bedrooms. Downstairs, the bright and spacious family room features new flooring, fresh paint, a full bathroom and direct access to the rear yard. Adjacent to the heated garage is the laundry area and a heated flex space with countless uses; a workshop, gym, storage, studio, and more, and outside, there’s plenty of space for the kids to run and play. Conveniently located, close to schools, shopping, restaurants, trains, I-684 and Lake Casse where you can swim, play and have fun with all your non-motorized water toys. If you’re looking for a comfortable and welcoming home, neighborhood and community, this home is for you! Don't miss out; come see this home before it's gone!

4. 2026-04-15
   historical

   Show marketing remark (1369 chars)

   Welcome to this move-in ready 3BR, 2BA home located in sought after Lake Casse! This home has been lovingly maintained, freshly painted and is ideal for relaxing, entertaining, and everyday living. Inside, you'll find a bright, comfortable and welcoming layout with newly refinished hardwood floors. On the main level, the bright & airy living room flows openly through the dining room into a dine-in-kitchen featuring stainless appliances, granite counter tops and access to the oversized deck overlooking the woods; perfect for entertaining and relaxing . Completing the upstairs is the primary bedroom with direct access to the updated full bathroom and 2 bright bedrooms. Downstairs, the bright and spacious family room features new flooring, fresh paint, a full bathroom and direct access to the rear yard. Adjacent to the heated garage is the laundry area and a heated flex space with countless uses; a workshop, gym, storage, studio, and more, and outside, there’s plenty of space for the kids to run and play. Conveniently located, close to schools, shopping, restaurants, trains, I-684 and Lake Casse where you can swim, play and have fun with all your non-motorized water toys. If you’re looking for a comfortable and welcoming home, neighborhood and community, this home is for you! Don't miss out; come see this home before it's gone!

5. 2026-04-15
   listed $579,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (1369 chars)

   Welcome to this move-in ready 3BR, 2BA home located in sought after Lake Casse! This home has been lovingly maintained, freshly painted and is ideal for relaxing, entertaining, and everyday living. Inside, you'll find a bright, comfortable and welcoming layout with newly refinished hardwood floors. On the main level, the bright & airy living room flows openly through the dining room into a dine-in-kitchen featuring stainless appliances, granite counter tops and access to the oversized deck overlooking the woods; perfect for entertaining and relaxing . Completing the upstairs is the primary bedroom with direct access to the updated full bathroom and 2 bright bedrooms. Downstairs, the bright and spacious family room features new flooring, fresh paint, a full bathroom and direct access to the rear yard. Adjacent to the heated garage is the laundry area and a heated flex space with countless uses; a workshop, gym, storage, studio, and more, and outside, there’s plenty of space for the kids to run and play. Conveniently located, close to schools, shopping, restaurants, trains, I-684 and Lake Casse where you can swim, play and have fun with all your non-motorized water toys. If you’re looking for a comfortable and welcoming home, neighborhood and community, this home is for you! Don't miss out; come see this home before it's gone!

6. 2026-04-15
   historical

   Show marketing remark (1369 chars)

   Welcome to this move-in ready 3BR, 2BA home located in sought after Lake Casse! This home has been lovingly maintained, freshly painted and is ideal for relaxing, entertaining, and everyday living. Inside, you'll find a bright, comfortable and welcoming layout with newly refinished hardwood floors. On the main level, the bright & airy living room flows openly through the dining room into a dine-in-kitchen featuring stainless appliances, granite counter tops and access to the oversized deck overlooking the woods; perfect for entertaining and relaxing . Completing the upstairs is the primary bedroom with direct access to the updated full bathroom and 2 bright bedrooms. Downstairs, the bright and spacious family room features new flooring, fresh paint, a full bathroom and direct access to the rear yard. Adjacent to the heated garage is the laundry area and a heated flex space with countless uses; a workshop, gym, storage, studio, and more, and outside, there’s plenty of space for the kids to run and play. Conveniently located, close to schools, shopping, restaurants, trains, I-684 and Lake Casse where you can swim, play and have fun with all your non-motorized water toys. If you’re looking for a comfortable and welcoming home, neighborhood and community, this home is for you! Don't miss out; come see this home before it's gone!

7. 1996-04-06
   soldstatus $186,000
8. 1996-04-04
   soldstatus $186,000
9. 1994-06-14
   soldstatus $176,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $14,476 · $1,206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,476 · $1,206/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,433
• − Property taxes: −$14,476
• − Insurance: −$2,895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,608
• − Management: −$4,608
• − Depreciation: −$16,844
• Taxable loss: −$18,264
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,383
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mahopac Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618120
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $103,440
• Composite: 58.66/100
• National rank: #983
• State rank: #156 of 590 in NY

Livability — Carmel

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 26,137

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,705 people
• By 2030: 99,650 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 98,641 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 96,348 · -3.4%
• By 2075: 94,412 · -5.3%
• By 2100: 88,728 · -11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 8% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 43.2% · R 56.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+17.8 2012: R+11.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.95%
• Current HPI: 253.3461
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+229.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $579,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Coming Soon $579,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $579,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $186,000 Public Records
• 1996-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $186,000 Public Records
• 1994-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $176,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,476 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.