204 Terrace Ridge Cir #204

Loughman, FL 33896

$194,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,688 sqft · Built 2005 · Condo · Active · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,353/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax + insurance: −$323
• HOA: −$755
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-237/mo
• Annual: $-2,842/yr
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.23%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $54,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $194k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-237 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (17.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $194k).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#781 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loughman Oaks Elementary School (math 36% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 1,052 students, 37% FRL); Davenport High School (2,333 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 60% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 775 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $194k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.8% in Loughman — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?