204 Terrace Ridge Cir #204 · Loughman, FL 33896

$194,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,688 sqft · Condo · 71 Days on market

Built 2005 $755/mo HOA · 32% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome! This inviting 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom, first floor corner unit presents a thoughtfully designed space, with an open layout, spacious bedrooms, and a private, covered patio, creating a warm atmosphere ready for any occasion. The secure gated entrance offers peace of mind, while the community pool, clubhouse, fitness center, and volleyball court provide daily enjoyment. Cable TV is also included with the monthly dues. The location offers outstanding convenience with immediate proximity to Publix, Aldi, and numerous shopping centers boasting daily essentials, primary services, restaurants, shopping, and entertainment for easy day-to-day living. Whether you are headed to Disney, Universa

Key facts

• $755 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; No lease restrictions indicated
• Financial info: Total monthly association fees: $755; Total annual association fees: $9,060
• HOA & community: Has HOA; Monthly condo fee of $755 (includes cable TV, common area taxes, pool, grounds maintenance, management, recreational facilities, water); Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, recreation facilities; Community features also include sidewalks and street lights; Pets allowed with limits (max weight 25 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; BB/HS internet available; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; One level; Faces west
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of a multi-story building (3 stories total)
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (Unit on floor 1)
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer and electric dryer hookups; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-237 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (17.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $194k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.8% in Loughman — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#781 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loughman Oaks Elementary School (math 36% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 1,052 students, 37% FRL); Davenport High School (2,333 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 60% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 773 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $194k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,729 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.23%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.83% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-43,258
• Equity at exit: $39,201

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-73,022
• Equity at exit: $34,965

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33896

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 773
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,353 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$242 /mo · $2,910/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$755
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,653

Max offer price $159,729

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-103	-5% $-170	+0% $-237	+5% $-304	+10% $-371
Rent	-10% $-423	-5% $-330	+0% $-237	+5% $-144	+10% $-51
Rate	-1.0pp $-139	-0.5pp $-187	base $-237	+0.5pp $-287	+1.0pp $-338

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
817 Terrace Ridge Cir #817 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1542	$1,795	$1.16	22d	1	0.10mi
818 Terrace Ridge Cir #818 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,300	$1.49	15d	1	0.11mi
200 Village Blvd Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,887	$1.81	3d	28	0.15mi
419 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1724	$1,900	$1.10	24d	1	0.16mi
447 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1507	$1,850	$1.23	22d	1	0.18mi
120 Reserve Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	1790	$2,500	$1.40	24d	1	0.18mi
467 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1507	$1,825	$1.21	24d	1	0.19mi
471 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1724	$1,980	$1.15	12d	1	0.20mi
364 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,890	$1.13	24d	1	0.23mi
364 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1724	$1,890	$1.10	15d	1	0.23mi
364 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	3.0	1724	$1,890	$1.10	14d	1	0.23mi
2110 Lynwind Blvd Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$2,504	$2.37	4d	41	0.30mi
241 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1507	$1,800	$1.19	24d	1	0.31mi
244 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1507	$1,850	$1.23	24d	1	0.33mi
136 Villa Domani Cir Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1823	$3,100	$1.70	24d	1	0.36mi
415 Villa Domani Way Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	2205	$3,995	$1.81	11d	1	0.42mi
181 Villa Domani Cir Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1823	$2,600	$1.43	24d	1	0.43mi
216 Villa Domani Cir Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1871	$3,000	$1.60	24d	1	0.44mi
396 Famagusta Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	4.0	1671	$3,000	$1.80	24d	1	0.46mi
395 Famagusta Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	4.0	1671	$2,700	$1.62	12d	1	0.48mi
1000 Victoria Park Blvd Davenport, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1212	$2,199	$1.81	3d	10	0.48mi
332 Famagusta Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	5.0	2143	$2,750	$1.28	4d	1	0.52mi
509 Famagusta Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	4.0	1671	$2,800	$1.68	24d	1	0.53mi
513 Famagusta Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	4.0	1671	$2,800	$1.68	15d	1	0.53mi
1305 Farkleberry LN Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1060	$2,385	$2.25	4d	172	0.53mi
1416 Thousand Oaks Blvd Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1357	$2,100	$1.55	24d	1	0.54mi
277 Famagusta Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	4.0	2020	$2,900	$1.44	24d	1	0.60mi
637 Trikomo Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	4.0	1856	$2,800	$1.51	24d	1	0.62mi
609 Trikomo Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	4.0	1736	$2,700	$1.56	24d	1	0.64mi
6100 Echelon Way Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$2,330	$2.09	3d	23	0.64mi
620 Trikomo Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1493	$2,650	$1.77	3d	1	0.66mi
1014 Cypress Pointe Blvd Davenport, FL	5.0	4.0	2110	$3,200	$1.52	24d	1	0.66mi
376 Tanglewood Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,400	$1.30	24d	1	0.67mi
308 Balmoral Ct Davenport, FL	5.0	3.5	2201	$3,200	$1.45	24d	1	0.71mi
1501 Northern Harrier Way Unit 1019795P Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,512	$1.78	8d	1	0.71mi
7501 Mourning Dove Cir #103 Reunion, FL	3.0	2.0	1354	$2,150	$1.59	24d	1	0.74mi
519 Thousand Oaks Blvd Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,175	$1.42	4d	1	0.76mi
7505 Mourning Dove Cir Reunion, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,175	$1.53	18d	2	0.76mi
7505 Mourning Dove Cir #204 Reunion, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,200	$1.55	8d	1	0.76mi
436 Lake Shore Pkwy Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1628	$2,700	$1.66	24d	1	0.77mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $755 · $9,060/yr
• Likely covers: cablepoolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $194,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-04-08
    listed $199,000 Active
17. 2025-10-15
    historical
18. 2025-05-12
    price $259,900
19. 2025-04-28
    listed $269,900 Active
20. 2024-01-05
    historical $1,900
21. 2023-10-11
    price $1,900
22. 2023-09-23
    price $1,990
23. 2023-09-22
    listed $2,100
24. 2020-07-01
    historical
25. 2020-06-11
    price $185,000
26. 2020-06-09
    listed $175,000 Active
27. 2013-08-30
    soldstatus $112,000
28. 2013-04-23
    listed $119,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$2,910
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,259
• − Management: −$2,259
• − HOA: −$9,060
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable loss: −$5,733
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,376
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Loughman

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #781
• US rank: #17702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Loughman, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 23,652
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,731
• Household income: $74,668
• Rent vs Own: 54.9% rent · 45.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1490.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 15% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Estonian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.83%
• Current HPI: 219.4726
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+66.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $259,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-28 Listed $269,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-05 Rental Removed $1,900 STELLARMLS
• 2023-10-11 Price Changed $1,900 STELLARMLS
• 2023-09-23 Price Changed $1,990 STELLARMLS
• 2023-09-22 Listed for Rent $2,100 STELLARMLS
• 2020-07-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-11 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-09 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-30 Sold (MLS) $112,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-23 Listed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid