101 Bear Creek Cir

Gluckstadt, MS 39046

$319,500D+

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,079 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,701/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,675
• Tax + insurance: −$308
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $118/mo
• Annual: $1,410/yr
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.58%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $89,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (15.5% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $270k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.9% in Gluckstadt — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.