101 Bear Creek Cir · Gluckstadt, MS 39046

$319,500

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,079 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 2006 0.50 ac lot $154/sqft · 14% below area Est $372k · 14% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for 3 bedrooms and 2 baths on corner lot 101 Bear Creek Circle is the home for you. This home was painted a few years ago Looks brand new. Primary Suite has new carpet and paint. Wonderful Kitchen with Granite Counter tops, Double ovens beautiful tile. Large fenced backyard. Close to everything Gluckstadtt has to offer.

Key facts

• New carpet
• New paint
• Granite counter tops

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NEW CARPET
• NEW PAINT
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• DOUBLE OVENS
• FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.9% in Gluckstadt — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 358 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,135 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.58%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $371,621
• List price: $319,500
• Delta: -14.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
436 Aurora Cir	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,909 (-8%)	2mo	$381,800	$200	59
408 Aurora Cir	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,860 (-10%)	1mo	$346,000	$186	58
465 Aurora Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,870 (-10%)	1mo	$349,500	$187	57
701 Summerfield Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,054 (-1%)	1mo	$373,000	$182	57
168 Glenwild Trl	0.42mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,246 (+8%)	1mo	$389,000	$173	57
125 Western Ridge Cir	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,893 (-9%)	1mo	$339,900	$180	52
440 Aurora Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,823 (-12%)	1mo	$364,600	$200	52
735 Glenwild Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,908 (-8%)	2mo	$335,000	$176	48
200 Azure Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,828 (-12%)	1mo	$339,000	$185	45
529 E Park St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,854 (-11%)	2mo	$319,900	$173	44
142 Western Ridge Cir	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,811 (-13%)	2mo	$327,500	$181	41
119 Hunters Way	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,867 (-10%)	2mo	$339,999	$182	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-44,365
• Equity at exit: $47,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-29,307
• Equity at exit: $27,625

Cash invested: $89,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39046

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,701 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,675
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,099/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,553

Max offer price $319,500

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $298	-5% $208	+0% $118	+5% $27	+10% $-63
Rent	-10% $-96	-5% $11	+0% $118	+5% $224	+10% $331
Rate	-1.0pp $278	-0.5pp $199	base $118	+0.5pp $35	+1.0pp $-50

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,875
• Closing costs: $9,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
231 Buttonwood Ln Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1593	$2,700	$1.69	22d	1	0.84mi
317 Willow Way Canton, MS	3.0	3.0	1700	$2,800	$1.65	44d	1	0.99mi
502 Black Cherry CV Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1887	$2,600	$1.38	14d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,500 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,500 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,500 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 612-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,500 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   remarks 572-char remark
7. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $319,500 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $322,900 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $322,900 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $322,900 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $322,900 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $322,900 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $322,900 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $322,900 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $322,900 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $322,900 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $327,900 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Looking for 3 bedrooms and 2 baths on corner lot 101 Bear Creek Circle is the home for you. This home was painted a few years ago Looks brand new. Primary Suite has new carpet and paint. Wonderful Kitchen with Granite Counter tops, Double ovens beautiful tile. Large fenced backyard. Close to everything Gluckstadtt has to offer.

18. 2026-05-14
    status Active 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Looking for 3 bedrooms and 2 baths on corner lot 101 Bear Creek Circle is the home for you. This home was painted a few years ago Looks brand new. Primary Suite has new carpet and paint. Wonderful Kitchen with Granite Counter tops, Double ovens beautiful tile. Large fenced backyard. Close to everything Gluckstadtt has to offer.

19. 2026-03-31
    status Pending 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Looking for 3 bedrooms and 2 baths on corner lot 101 Bear Creek Circle is the home for you. This home was painted a few years ago Looks brand new. Primary Suite has new carpet and paint. Wonderful Kitchen with Granite Counter tops, Double ovens beautiful tile. Large fenced backyard. Close to everything Gluckstadtt has to offer.

20. 2026-03-21
    price $329,000 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Looking for 3 bedrooms and 2 baths on corner lot 101 Bear Creek Circle is the home for you. This home was painted a few years ago Looks brand new. Primary Suite has new carpet and paint. Wonderful Kitchen with Granite Counter tops, Double ovens beautiful tile. Large fenced backyard. Close to everything Gluckstadtt has to offer.

21. 2026-03-03
    price $339,000 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Looking for 3 bedrooms and 2 baths on corner lot 101 Bear Creek Circle is the home for you. This home was painted a few years ago Looks brand new. Primary Suite has new carpet and paint. Wonderful Kitchen with Granite Counter tops, Double ovens beautiful tile. Large fenced backyard. Close to everything Gluckstadtt has to offer.

22. 2026-01-28
    listed $345,000 Active 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Looking for 3 bedrooms and 2 baths on corner lot 101 Bear Creek Circle is the home for you. This home was painted a few years ago Looks brand new. Primary Suite has new carpet and paint. Wonderful Kitchen with Granite Counter tops, Double ovens beautiful tile. Large fenced backyard. Close to everything Gluckstadtt has to offer.

23. 2007-07-27
    soldstatus 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    Beautiful new construction in Bear Creek Crossing ready for new owners. Move in ready.! This custom builder adds all the amenities... granite counter tops, hardwood floors, tankless hot water heater, double ovens. Madison Schools! Call your agent today or stop by. Don't forget to click on the photograph for additional pictures! Builder is ready to DEAL! MAKE OFFER.

24. 2006-10-23
    listed $235,000 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    Beautiful new construction in Bear Creek Crossing ready for new owners. Move in ready.! This custom builder adds all the amenities... granite counter tops, hardwood floors, tankless hot water heater, double ovens. Madison Schools! Call your agent today or stop by. Don't forget to click on the photograph for additional pictures! Builder is ready to DEAL! MAKE OFFER.

25. 2006-05-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,099 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,524 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$425/yr (+$35/mo · 20.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,897
• − Property taxes: −$2,099
• − Insurance: −$1,598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,593
• − Management: −$2,593
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$9,295
• Taxable loss: −$4,055
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$973
• After-tax cash flow: $2,383/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gluckstadt

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gluckstadt, MS
• Population (ZIP): 29,160

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.50%
• Current HPI: 154.0441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+39.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $327,900 MLSU
• 2026-05-14 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-03-31 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $329,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $339,000 MLSU
• 2026-01-28 Listed $345,000 MLSU
• 2007-07-27 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2006-10-23 Listed $235,000 MLSU
• 2006-05-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,099 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.