11 Square Woods Dr

Freedom Plains, NY 12540

$559,000C

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,560 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 177 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,931
• Tax + insurance: −$1,453
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,260
• Net cashflow: $356/mo
• Annual: $4,271/yr
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.73%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $156,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $559k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $356 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $559k).
• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $492k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#715 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A-; Watch: housing C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $441k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.4% in Freedom Plains — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.