11 Square Woods Dr · Freedom Plains, NY 12540

$559,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 177 Days on market

Built 1973 1.43 ac lot $157/sqft · 26% below area Est $731k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on 1.43 acres, this home features a front porch, new recessed lighting, hardwood floors throughout and an abundance of natural light. Cozy up in the family room next to the brand new pellet stove insert complete with a renovated bathroom or spend time entertaining in the kitchen, a large adjacent dining room and living room. The primary bedroom features 2 walk in closets, a dressing area, a walk out balcony and an attached full bathroom. There are endless possibilities for the large finished basement that contains a walk out to a large 2 car garage ideal for a work space or storage. This home is a perfect place to add your special touches and contains central air, a new hot water heater, water softener and updated plumbing. This home is also located in a desired neighborhood and is conveniently located to route 55, the Taconic state parkway, metro north to NYC, shopping, rail trail, and more.

Key facts

• Renovated bathroom
• Front porch
• Natural light

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• NEW RECESSED LIGHTING
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• PELLET STOVE INSERT
• RENOVATED BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $559k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $356 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $559k).
• Recommended offer: $492k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.4% in Freedom Plains — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#715 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A-; Watch: housing C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $441k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $491,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.73%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $731,043
• List price: $559,000
• Delta: -23.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 Johnson Rd	0.51mi	4/2.5	3,252 (-9%)	18mo	$585,000	$180	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-67,505
• Equity at exit: $83,349

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-27,927
• Equity at exit: $48,332

Cash invested: $156,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12540

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,931
• Tax from tax record: −$1,220 /mo · $14,637/yr
• Insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,260
• Net cashflow: $356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,550

Max offer price $559,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $672	-5% $514	+0% $356	+5% $198	+10% $39
Rent	-10% $-118	-5% $119	+0% $356	+5% $593	+10% $830
Rate	-1.0pp $637	-0.5pp $498	base $356	+0.5pp $211	+1.0pp $64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $139,750
• Closing costs: $16,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Ohare Dr Lagrangeville, NY	4.0	3.5	2480	$6,000	$2.42	44d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 914-char remark

   Show marketing remark (914 chars)

   Situated on 1.43 acres, this home features a front porch, new recessed lighting, hardwood floors throughout and an abundance of natural light. Cozy up in the family room next to the brand new pellet stove insert complete with a renovated bathroom or spend time entertaining in the kitchen, a large adjacent dining room and living room. The primary bedroom features 2 walk in closets, a dressing area, a walk out balcony and an attached full bathroom. There are endless possibilities for the large finished basement that contains a walk out to a large 2 car garage ideal for a work space or storage. This home is a perfect place to add your special touches and contains central air, a new hot water heater, water softener and updated plumbing. This home is also located in a desired neighborhood and is conveniently located to route 55, the Taconic state parkway, metro north to NYC, shopping, rail trail, and more.

2. 2026-03-09
   price $559,000 914-char remark

   Show marketing remark (914 chars)

   Situated on 1.43 acres, this home features a front porch, new recessed lighting, hardwood floors throughout and an abundance of natural light. Cozy up in the family room next to the brand new pellet stove insert complete with a renovated bathroom or spend time entertaining in the kitchen, a large adjacent dining room and living room. The primary bedroom features 2 walk in closets, a dressing area, a walk out balcony and an attached full bathroom. There are endless possibilities for the large finished basement that contains a walk out to a large 2 car garage ideal for a work space or storage. This home is a perfect place to add your special touches and contains central air, a new hot water heater, water softener and updated plumbing. This home is also located in a desired neighborhood and is conveniently located to route 55, the Taconic state parkway, metro north to NYC, shopping, rail trail, and more.

3. 2025-11-15
   listed $560,000 Active 914-char remark

   Show marketing remark (914 chars)

   Situated on 1.43 acres, this home features a front porch, new recessed lighting, hardwood floors throughout and an abundance of natural light. Cozy up in the family room next to the brand new pellet stove insert complete with a renovated bathroom or spend time entertaining in the kitchen, a large adjacent dining room and living room. The primary bedroom features 2 walk in closets, a dressing area, a walk out balcony and an attached full bathroom. There are endless possibilities for the large finished basement that contains a walk out to a large 2 car garage ideal for a work space or storage. This home is a perfect place to add your special touches and contains central air, a new hot water heater, water softener and updated plumbing. This home is also located in a desired neighborhood and is conveniently located to route 55, the Taconic state parkway, metro north to NYC, shopping, rail trail, and more.

4. 2024-02-04
   historical
5. 2024-02-04
   historical
6. 2023-07-06
   soldstatus $441,150
7. 2023-03-16
   listed $449,900
8. 2023-01-27
   historical
9. 2022-10-06
   listed $399,000
10. 2022-08-01
    listed $449,000
11. 2022-04-28
    listed $439,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $14,637 · $1,220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,637 · $1,220/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,313
• − Property taxes: −$14,637
• − Insurance: −$2,795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,760
• − Management: −$5,760
• − Depreciation: −$16,262
• Taxable loss: −$4,526
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,086
• After-tax cash flow: $5,357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603270
• Math proficiency: 77% ▲ 19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,597
• Composite: 63.47/100
• National rank: #613
• State rank: #106 of 590 in NY

Livability — Freedom Plains

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #715
• US rank: #13585

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,314

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Russian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.96%
• Current HPI: 227.957
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+27.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $559,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-15 Listed $560,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-04 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-04 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-06 Sold (MLS) $441,150 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-16 Listed $449,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-27 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-06 Listed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-01 Listed $449,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-28 Listed $439,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,637 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.