1703 Essex St

Essexville, MI 48732

$144,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,301/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $2/mo
• Annual: $20/yr
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $40,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($20/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (10.2% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $130k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#165 in MI, #4,369 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Essexville-Hampton Public Schools (suburban): math 29% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #217 of 540 in MI (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.3% in Essexville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.