1703 Essex St · Essexville, MI 48732

$144,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 1965 7,405 sqft lot Est $153k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Seller asking for all highest and best offers by Monday 4/27/26 @ 6pm. Seller will not consider any escalation terms, asking only for buyer's highest and best offers. * Three bedroom one bath ranch home with large 2.5 car detached garage. Full basement and fenced backyard with deck. All appliances stay, within walking distance to schools. Book your showing today!

Key facts

• Full basement
• Fenced backyard
• Detached garage

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• FULL BASEMENT
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($20/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.3% in Essexville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#165 in MI, #4,369 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Essexville-Hampton Public Schools (suburban): math 29% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #217 of 540 in MI (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $130,106 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1703 Essex St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,092 (0%)	1mo	$149,500	$137	99
1207 Mercer St	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,074 (-2%)	2mo	$136,000	$127	80
2103 S BRENTWOOD Pl	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+1%)	2mo	$187,055	$169	80
706 Maple St	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,156 (+6%)	2mo	$169,900	$147	74
707 Burns St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,198 (+10%)	3mo	$80,000	$67	67
607 Burns St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,179 (+8%)	6mo	$130,000	$110	66
802 1st St	0.58mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,090 (-0%)	3mo	$159,900	$147	65
1402 Nebobish Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,052 (-4%)	1mo	$147,000	$140	64
703 Main St	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (-13%)	4mo	$125,000	$132	64
1005 Maple St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,197 (+10%)	5mo	$177,500	$148	61
14 W Sharlear Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,075 (-2%)	7mo	$130,000	$121	54
105 Birney St	0.55mi	2/1.5 (-1)	964 (-12%)	0mo	$163,000	$169	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-23,339
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-20,044
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48732

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,301 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,471/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,299

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (368 chars)

   * Seller asking for all highest and best offers by Monday 4/27/26 @ 6pm. Seller will not consider any escalation terms, asking only for buyer's highest and best offers. * Three bedroom one bath ranch home with large 2.5 car detached garage. Full basement and fenced backyard with deck. All appliances stay, within walking distance to schools. Book your showing today!

2. 2026-04-28
   status Pending 368-char remark

   Show marketing remark (368 chars)

   * Seller asking for all highest and best offers by Monday 4/27/26 @ 6pm. Seller will not consider any escalation terms, asking only for buyer's highest and best offers. * Three bedroom one bath ranch home with large 2.5 car detached garage. Full basement and fenced backyard with deck. All appliances stay, within walking distance to schools. Book your showing today!

3. 2026-04-24
   listed $144,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (368 chars)

   * Seller asking for all highest and best offers by Monday 4/27/26 @ 6pm. Seller will not consider any escalation terms, asking only for buyer's highest and best offers. * Three bedroom one bath ranch home with large 2.5 car detached garage. Full basement and fenced backyard with deck. All appliances stay, within walking distance to schools. Book your showing today!

4. 2026-04-24
   listed $144,900 Active 368-char remark

   Show marketing remark (368 chars)

   * Seller asking for all highest and best offers by Monday 4/27/26 @ 6pm. Seller will not consider any escalation terms, asking only for buyer's highest and best offers. * Three bedroom one bath ranch home with large 2.5 car detached garage. Full basement and fenced backyard with deck. All appliances stay, within walking distance to schools. Book your showing today!

5. 2023-02-16
   soldstatus $115,000
6. 2023-02-15
   soldstatus $115,000 Closed 341-char remark

   Show marketing remark (341 chars)

   Cozy 3 bedroom, 1 bath home in Essexville just under 1100 sq ft. Nicely updated kitchen & bath. Large eat-in kitchen. Living room has patio door to spacious deck. Vinyl siding & newer vinyl windows. Full basement. Home sits on a 50 x 150 fenced lot & has a large 2 car detached garage. Vacant & ready for a new owner.

7. 2023-01-09
   status Pending 341-char remark

   Show marketing remark (341 chars)

   Cozy 3 bedroom, 1 bath home in Essexville just under 1100 sq ft. Nicely updated kitchen & bath. Large eat-in kitchen. Living room has patio door to spacious deck. Vinyl siding & newer vinyl windows. Full basement. Home sits on a 50 x 150 fenced lot & has a large 2 car detached garage. Vacant & ready for a new owner.

8. 2022-12-29
   listed $119,900 Active 341-char remark

   Show marketing remark (341 chars)

   Cozy 3 bedroom, 1 bath home in Essexville just under 1100 sq ft. Nicely updated kitchen & bath. Large eat-in kitchen. Living room has patio door to spacious deck. Vinyl siding & newer vinyl windows. Full basement. Home sits on a 50 x 150 fenced lot & has a large 2 car detached garage. Vacant & ready for a new owner.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,471 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,471 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,613
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$2,471
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,249
• − Management: −$1,249
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable loss: −$2,413
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$579
• After-tax cash flow: $599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Essexville-Hampton Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2613530
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $52,936
• Composite: 33.87/100
• National rank: #5349
• State rank: #217 of 540 in MI

Livability — Essexville

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #4369

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Essexville, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 11,340
• Household income: $57,903
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 200.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 11% English 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.53%
• Current HPI: 191.1777
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+20.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-28 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $144,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $144,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-15 Sold (MLS) $115,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-01-09 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-12-29 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,471 · -16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.