1251 E Lugonia Ave #109

Redlands, CA 92374

$129,900B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1974 · Manufactured · Active · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,953/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $645/mo
• Annual: $7,743/yr
• Cap rate: 12.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.29%
• DSCR: 1.95
• 1% rule: 1.50%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $645 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#118 in CA, #4,193 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety D, cost of living F.
• Redlands Unified (urban): math 44% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #390 of 1,400 in CA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Judson & Brown Elementary (476 students, 56% FRL); Clement Middle (1,038 students, 75% FRL); Redlands East Valley High (1,853 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 48% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 2.8% in Redlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor: bathroom fixtures — dated design
• Minor: interior paint — dated colors