194 Fcr #445

Fairfield, TX 75840

$97,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Pending · 150 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,205/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax + insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $232/mo
• Annual: $2,780/yr
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.23%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $27,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $97k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $85k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#736 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fairfield ISD (town): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #475 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fairfield El (391 students, 71% FRL); Fairfield J H (math 28% / reading 36%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 409 students, 59% FRL); Fairfield H S (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 489 students, 52% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Freestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Freestone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.5% in Fairfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.