194 Fcr #445 · Fairfield, TX 75840

$97,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 150 Days on market

Built 1945 1.00 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming property in the friendly, well-maintained community of Fairfield, Texas. Sitting on a spacious full acre, this home offers plenty of room to breathe and enjoy the country surroundings. Surrounded by beautiful mature trees and scenic views, it provides a perfect retreat for those seeking privacy and relaxation. The house features a large front porch. . The interior is move-in ready, in livable condition, with a warm and inviting feel. While it may need a little personal touch or updates, it offers a fantastic opportunity to create your dream home in a peaceful setting. Enjoy the benefits of a secluded lot with ample outdoor space, all within a friendly community that

Key facts

• Ample outdoor space
• Large front porch
• Secluded lot

Tags

• FULL ACRE
• MATURE TREES
• SCENIC VIEWS
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• SECLUDED LOT
• AMPLE OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.5% in Fairfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#736 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fairfield ISD (town): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #475 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fairfield El (391 students, 71% FRL); Fairfield H S (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 489 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 37% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Fairfield ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Freestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Freestone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.23%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-916
• Equity at exit: $14,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $18,397
• Equity at exit: $8,387

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75840

• Home prices YoY: -10.4%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,053/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $912

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $287	-5% $259	+0% $232	+5% $204	+10% $177
Rent	-10% $136	-5% $184	+0% $232	+5% $279	+10% $327
Rate	-1.0pp $280	-0.5pp $256	base $232	+0.5pp $207	+1.0pp $181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-02-05
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-20
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-09-08
   listed $97,000 Active
4. 1993-05-04
   soldstatus
5. 1983-03-04
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,053 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,053 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$2,053
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,157
• − Management: −$1,157
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $1,351
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$324
• After-tax cash flow: $2,455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfield ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818940
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $46,909
• Composite: 31.68/100
• National rank: #5926
• State rank: #475 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fairfield

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #736
• US rank: #13679

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,993

Population outlook (Freestone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,591 people
• By 2030: 19,470 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 19,111 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 18,700 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 17,586 · -10.2%
• By 2100: 14,933 · -23.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 13% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Freestone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.3) · D 16.6% · R 82.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -43.5pp · 2024: -66.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.3 2020: R+61.5 2016: R+59.6 2012: R+50.2 2008: R+43.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.43%
• Current HPI: 185.1167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-09-20 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2025-09-08 Listed $97,000 HARMLS
• 1993-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1983-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,053 · +73.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.