2 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,024 sqft ·
Built 1988
· Townhouse
· Active
· 51 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,052/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,259
Tax + insurance
−$223
HOA
−$203
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$431
Net cashflow
$-63/mo
Annual
$-759/yr
Cap rate
5.98%
Cash-on-cash
-1.13%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$67,200
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $240k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-759/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (4.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (14.5% below list).
It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $205k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #988 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Eisenhower Elementary School (math 47% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 661 students, 74% FRL); Countryside High School (math 25% / reading 45%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 1,741 students, 44% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.6%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $140k; list at $240k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.9% in Clearwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-X3ATMFFJQS59WP
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29