194 College Hill Rd

Richmond, KY 40385

$239,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,406 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Pending · 117 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,296/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax + insurance: −$186
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-416/mo
• Annual: $-4,987/yr
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.45%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $66,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-416 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (30.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (45.8% below list).
• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (45.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#163 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Madison County (town): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #35 of 165 in KY (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 453 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $239k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.1% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.