194 College Hill Rd · Richmond, KY 40385

$239,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,406 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1951 2.00 ac lot $99/sqft · 50% below area Est $317k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this 4 bedroom / 2 bath home on 2 acres featuring a barn and two-car detached garage. Major updates include new windows (2024), roof (5 yrs), septic lines (2021), and HVAC (6 yrs) for added peace of mind. Enjoy spacious country living with room to roam, garden, or entertain. A great blend of privacy, functionality, and convenience!

Key facts

• Roof
• Hvac
• Country living

Tags

• NEW WINDOWS
• ROOF
• SEPTIC LINES
• HVAC
• COUNTRY LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-416 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (30.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (45.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (45.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.1% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#163 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Madison County (town): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #35 of 165 in KY (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 453 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $239k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $129,589 (45.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.45%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,876
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: -24.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
137 Waco Hts	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,366 (-2%)	9mo	$390,000	$165	76
3916 New Irvine Rd	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,128 (-12%)	12mo	$280,000	$132	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $18,879
• Equity at exit: $125,199

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $84,735
• Equity at exit: $208,049

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40385

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,296 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,037/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,822

Max offer price $165,580

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $239,000 Pending 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Contingent 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Contingent 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,000 Contingent 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $239,000 Contingent 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $239,000 Contingent 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $239,000 Contingent 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $239,000 Contingent 109 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $239,000 Contingent 108 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Contingent 107 DOM
11. 2026-05-11
    historical Contingent 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Take a look at this 4 bedroom / 2 bath home on 2 acres featuring a barn and two-car detached garage. Major updates include new windows (2024), roof (5 yrs), septic lines (2021), and HVAC (6 yrs) for added peace of mind. Enjoy spacious country living with room to roam, garden, or entertain. A great blend of privacy, functionality, and convenience!

12. 2026-04-28
    price $239,000 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Take a look at this 4 bedroom / 2 bath home on 2 acres featuring a barn and two-car detached garage. Major updates include new windows (2024), roof (5 yrs), septic lines (2021), and HVAC (6 yrs) for added peace of mind. Enjoy spacious country living with room to roam, garden, or entertain. A great blend of privacy, functionality, and convenience!

13. 2026-03-30
    price $259,900 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Take a look at this 4 bedroom / 2 bath home on 2 acres featuring a barn and two-car detached garage. Major updates include new windows (2024), roof (5 yrs), septic lines (2021), and HVAC (6 yrs) for added peace of mind. Enjoy spacious country living with room to roam, garden, or entertain. A great blend of privacy, functionality, and convenience!

14. 2026-02-12
    listed $275,000 Active 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    Take a look at this 4 bedroom / 2 bath home on 2 acres featuring a barn and two-car detached garage. Major updates include new windows (2024), roof (5 yrs), septic lines (2021), and HVAC (6 yrs) for added peace of mind. Enjoy spacious country living with room to roam, garden, or entertain. A great blend of privacy, functionality, and convenience!

15. 2016-09-07
    soldstatus $92,000 Sold 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Adorable country home on 2 acres! Home features fresh paint throughout; newer plumbing; upgraded electric; newer roof; beautiful hardwood floors; 2 car detached garage; and barn.

16. 2016-07-21
    status Pending 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Adorable country home on 2 acres! Home features fresh paint throughout; newer plumbing; upgraded electric; newer roof; beautiful hardwood floors; 2 car detached garage; and barn.

17. 2016-06-10
    listed $100,000 Active 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Adorable country home on 2 acres! Home features fresh paint throughout; newer plumbing; upgraded electric; newer roof; beautiful hardwood floors; 2 car detached garage; and barn.

18. 2014-05-30
    soldstatus $71,000
19. 2014-05-28
    soldstatus $71,000
20. 2014-05-01
    listed $72,000
21. 2014-04-04
    historical
22. 2014-01-14
    listed $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,037 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,055 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,018/yr (+$85/mo · 98.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,551
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$1,037
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,244
• − Management: −$1,244
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$9,510
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,282
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 2103720
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $43,590
• Composite: 32.99/100
• National rank: #5580
• State rank: #35 of 165 in KY

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #163
• US rank: #8196

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 65,961
• Population (ZIP): 2,378

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,241 people
• By 2030: 104,927 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 116,079 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 127,293 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 155,644 · +56.8%
• By 2100: 176,488 · +77.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 33.6% · R 64.5% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+26.8 2016: R+31.2 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.29%
• Current HPI: 248.2775
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+231.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $239,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $259,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $275,000 ImagineMLS
• 2016-09-07 Sold (MLS) $92,000 ImagineMLS
• 2016-07-21 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2016-06-10 Listed $100,000 ImagineMLS
• 2014-05-30 Sold (MLS) $71,000 ImagineMLS
• 2014-05-28 Sold (MLS) $71,000 ImagineMLS
• 2014-05-01 Listed $72,000 ImagineMLS
• 2014-04-04 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2014-01-14 Listed $72,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,037 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.