22B Alpine Rd #63

Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ 08759

$185,000D-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 965 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,716/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$308
• HOA: −$143
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-66/mo
• Annual: $-788/yr
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.52%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-788/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (7.2% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $172k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#481 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.