22B Alpine Rd #63 · Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ 08759

$185,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 965 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 1983 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot Est $184k · at est. $143/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this desirable Canterbury model in Crestwood Village 6, a vibrant 55+ active adult community. This well-maintained home features 2 spacious bedrooms and 1.5 baths, offering comfortable and convenient living. Freshly painted throughout and equipped with a newer electric stove, this move-in-ready residence is ready for its next owner. Enjoy the comfort of central air conditioning and a functional floor plan designed for easy living. Take advantage of the many amenities and social opportunities available in this active community while enjoying a low maintenance lifestyle. Make this charming home yours.

Key facts

• Canterbury model
• Crestwood village 6
• Newer electric stove

Tags

• CANTERBURY MODEL
• CRESTWOOD VILLAGE 6
• 55 ACTIVE ADULT COMMUNITY
• NEWER ELECTRIC STOVE
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• LOW MAINTENANCE LIFESTYLE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $143; Association amenities include a clubhouse and community room; Association fee includes trash, lawn maintenance, and snow removal; Association name: Crestwiid Village

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership; Model: CANTERBURY
• Construction: Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Property is attached

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator, Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom and 1 half bathroom (1.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Washer, Dryer, Refrigerator, Microwave, Garage door opener, Blinds/Shades, Light fixtures, Screens; No fireplaces; Vinyl flooring; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer, Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-788/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#481 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,620 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.52%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,315
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Alpine Rd Unit C	0.08mi	2/1.0	965 (0%)	8mo	$229,000	$237	87
20 Amesbury Rd Unit B	0.28mi	2/1.0	965 (0%)	0mo	$168,000	$174	84
7 Amherst Rd Unit A	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,076 (+12%)	1mo	$225,000	$209	76
15A Alpine Rd #63	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,076 (+12%)	1mo	$205,000	$191	74
8 Mill Rd #64	0.42mi	2/1.0	965 (0%)	8mo	$170,000	$176	72
40 Stonybrook Rd #62	0.37mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+4%)	3mo	$150,000	$149	71
41 Stonybrook Rd Unit A	0.45mi	2/1.0	924 (-4%)	5mo	$168,000	$182	66
9 Greenwood Ln #62	0.42mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,009 (+5%)	1mo	$190,000	$188	65
1 Greenwood Ln Unit B	0.54mi	2/1.0	1,009 (+5%)	2mo	$252,000	$250	64
8 Alpine Rd Unit B	0.18mi	2/1.0	1,098 (+14%)	7mo	$215,000	$196	60
8 Alpine Rd Unit B	0.18mi	2/1.0	1,098 (+14%)	7mo	$215,000	$196	60
45 Beaver Ave	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+9%)	5mo	$79,900	$76	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-34,048
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-34,574
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,716 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$143
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,799

Max offer price $175,494

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $62	-5% $-2	+0% $-66	+5% $-130	+10% $-194
Rent	-10% $-201	-5% $-133	+0% $-66	+5% $2	+10% $70
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $-19	base $-66	+0.5pp $-114	+1.0pp $-162

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Autumn Ct Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	0d	1	0.48mi
7 Teal Ct Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	5d	1	0.62mi
57D Milford Ave Unit 53 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	25d	1	1.13mi
19B Maplewood Dr #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1109	$2,250	$2.03	18d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $143 · $1,716/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 617-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $185,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,648
• − Management: −$1,648
• − HOA: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,861
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$927
• After-tax cash flow: $138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Crestwood Village 6 is move-in ready with fresh paint and a functional floor plan. Minor updates to the exterior and interior could significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain
• Both Install new window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain ↑
• Both Install new window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pine Ridge at Crestwood

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #18916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $185,000 MOMLS