Is 22B Alpine Rd #63 in Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C- with a 6.0% cap rate and $-43/mo modeled cash flow at a $185,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 22B Alpine Rd #63?

The modeled cap rate is 6.0% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,745/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

C- Composite 50.11

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +13.5/30.0
1% rule +4.7/10.0
DSCR +4.3/10.0
Condition / age +3.8/5.0
Schools +3.4/10.0
Livability +3.0/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$185,000

22B Alpine Rd #63 · Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ 08759

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 965 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Built 1983 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot 1-car garage $192/sqft · 18% below area Est $226k · 18% under $143/mo HOA · 8% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to this desirable Canterbury model in Crestwood Village 6, a vibrant 55+ active adult community. This well-maintained home features 2 spacious bedrooms and 1.5 baths, offering comfortable and convenient living. Freshly painted throughout and equipped with a newer electric stove, this move-in-ready residence is ready for its next owner. Enjoy the comfort of central air conditioning and a functional floor plan designed for easy living. Take advantage of the many amenities and social opportunities available in this active community while enjoying a low maintenance lifestyle. Make this charming home yours.

Key facts

Canterbury model
Crestwood village 6
Newer electric stove

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-515/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (3.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (5.7% below list).
Recommended offer: $168k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

Location reads 60/100 on livability (#481 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Whiting Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 301 students, 25% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL).
Market conditions: 1086 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.94% ✗
Cap rate: 6.01%
Cash-on-cash: -0.99%
DSCR: 0.96
GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $225,534
List price: $185,000
Delta: -17.97%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16B Amesbury Rd	0.26mi	2/1.0	965 (0%)	1mo	$195,000	$202	85
20 Amesbury Rd Unit B	0.28mi	2/1.0	965 (0%)	4mo	$168,000	$174	82
18 Alpine Rd Unit C	0.06mi	2/1.5	880 (-9%)	3mo	$160,000	$182	80
50D Stonybrook Rd	0.25mi	2/1.0	924 (-4%)	0mo	$155,000	$168	79
7 Amherst Rd Unit A	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,076 (+12%)	4mo	$225,000	$209	73
15A Alpine Rd #63	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,076 (+12%)	4mo	$205,000	$191	71
9A Ardsley Ave #64	0.23mi	2/1.5	1,076 (+12%)	0mo	$178,000	$165	70
14C Amesbury Rd #64	0.27mi	2/1.0	1,076 (+12%)	3mo	$190,000	$177	64
9 Greenwood Ln #62	0.42mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,009 (+5%)	4mo	$190,000	$188	63
1 Greenwood Ln Unit B	0.54mi	2/1.0	1,009 (+5%)	5mo	$252,000	$250	61
5 Berkeley St Unit A	0.33mi	2/1.5	1,098 (+14%)	2mo	$189,900	$173	60
33 Medford Rd Unit A	0.63mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+4%)	2mo	$175,000	$174	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -17.9%
Equity multiple: 0.37×
Total profit: $-32,598
Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

IRR: -9.9%
Equity multiple: 0.39×
Total profit: $-31,443
Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 26 active · 16 under contract
Months of supply: 9.2 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $168,000 ($153/sqft)
Median days on market: 63 d
This list price: 65% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +52.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08759

Active inventory: 1086
Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,745 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$970
Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
Insurance: −$77
HOA: −$143
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,799

Max offer price $178,787

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $85	-5% $21	+0% $-43	+5% $-107	+10% $-171
Rent	-10% $-181	-5% $-112	+0% $-43	+5% $26	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $50	-0.5pp $4	base $-43	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-140

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $46,250
Closing costs: $5,550
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Autumn Ct Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	94d	1	0.48mi
27A Stonybrook Rd Unit 61 Whiting, NJ	1.0	1.0	814	$1,750	$2.15	9d	1	0.56mi
88 Beaver Ave Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	991	$1,600	$1.61	68d	1	0.60mi
7 Teal Ct Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	99d	1	0.62mi
94 Beaver Ave Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	991	$1,600	$1.61	67d	1	0.63mi
57D Milford Ave Unit 53 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	120d	1	1.13mi
48B Milford Ave #53 Whiting, NJ	1.0	1.0	1009	$1,850	$1.83	0d	1	1.16mi
35 Milford Ave #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1101	$2,500	$2.27	0d	1	1.32mi
19B Maplewood Dr #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1109	$2,250	$2.03	112d	1	1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $143Association amenities include a clubhouse and community roomAssociation fee includes trash, lawn maintenance, and snow removalAssociation name: Crestwiid Village

Exterior

Parking: Attached 1-car garage
Utilities: Public sewer
Home design: Fee simple ownershipModel: CANTERBURY
Construction: Crawl space foundation
Exterior features: Shingle roofProperty is attached

Interior

Kitchen: Refrigerator, Microwave
Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
Flooring: Vinyl
Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom and 1 half bathroom (1.5 total)
Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features: Washer, Dryer, Refrigerator, Microwave, Garage door opener, Blinds/Shades, Light fixtures, ScreensNo fireplacesVinyl flooringCrawl space basement
Laundry & utility: Washer, Dryer

HOA detail $143/mo · $1,716/yr

Likely covers: electric

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $185,000 Active 106 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $185,000 Active 105 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $185,000 Active 104 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $185,000 Active 103 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $185,000 Active 102 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $185,000 Active 101 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $185,000 Active 100 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $185,000 Active 99 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $185,000 Active 98 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $185,000 Active 97 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $185,000 Active 96 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $185,000 Active 95 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $185,000 Active 94 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $185,000 Active 93 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $185,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $185,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $185,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $185,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $185,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $185,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $185,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $185,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $185,000 Active 76 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $185,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $185,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $185,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $185,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $185,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $185,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $185,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $185,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $185,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $185,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $185,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $185,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $185,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $185,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $185,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $185,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $185,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $185,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $185,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $185,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $185,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $185,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $185,000 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $185,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $185,000 Active 46 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $185,000 Active 44 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $185,000 Active 43 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $20,940
− Mortgage interest: −$10,363
− Property taxes: −$2,775
− Insurance: −$925
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,675
− Management: −$1,675
− HOA: −$1,716
− Depreciation: −$5,382
Taxable loss: −$3,571

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$857
After-tax cash flow: $342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,825–$14,475 screening

This well-maintained single-family home in Crestwood Village 6 is move-in ready with fresh paint and a functional floor plan. Minor updates to the exterior and interior could significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain ↑
Both Install new window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Whiting Elementary School F NJ #582/1,303 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Manchester Township Middle School F NJ #226/431 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Manchester Township High School F NJ #290/399 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Manchester Township School District
NCES district ID: 3409450
Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $38,905
Composite: 28.8/100
National rank: #6662
State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Pine Ridge at Crestwood

Score: 60/100
State rank: #481
US rank: #18916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ
County: Ocean · 586,991 people
Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
Population (ZIP): 34,290
Household income: $55,000
Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 586,991 people
By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
Current HPI: 274.4679
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Consumer Goods	3	$31B
#281 Kenvue Skillman $15.4B #289 Campbell Soup Camden $9.6B #320 Church & Dwight Ewing $6.1B
Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
#48 Johnson & Johnson New Brunswick $88.8B #65 Merck Rahway $64.2B
Technology	2	$21B
#216 Automatic Data Processing Roseland $19.8B #442 Commvault Systems Tinton Falls $0.9B
Insurance	2	$20B
#411 Arch Capital Group Pembroke $15.2B #459 Selective Insurance Group Branchville $4.9B
Healthcare	2	$19B
#310 Quest Diagnostics Secaucus $9.8B #400 Zoetis Parsippany $9.1B
Financial Services	1	$70B
#62 Prudential Financial Newark $70.4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-06-10 Listed $185,000 MOMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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