48939 River Park Rd

Oakhurst, CA 93644

$729,000B-

12 bd · 6.0 ba · 5,670 sqft · Built 1979 · MultiFamily · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,600/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,823
• Tax + insurance: −$906
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,226
• Net cashflow: $3,645/mo
• Annual: $43,746/yr
• Cap rate: 12.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.43%
• DSCR: 1.95
• 1% rule: 1.45%
• Cash to close: $204,120

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $729k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($44k/yr) — positive. Per door: $911/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $729k).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($707k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $707k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#911 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Oakhurst Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #917 of 1,571 statewide, top 60%, 352 students, 64% FRL); Oak Creek Intermediate (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #183 of 498 statewide, top 38%, 204 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $491k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $204k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 3.4% in Oakhurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.