48939 River Park Rd · Oakhurst, CA 93644

$729,000

12 bd · 6.0 ba · 5,670 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1979 0.43 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Oakhurst Apartments for sale! A 2 story, 6 unit complex. Good rental income. Four of the units are 2 bedroom, 1 bath. Two of the units are 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath. There is a separate utility room for all units to use. Ideal in town location. $499,000

Key facts

• 0.43 acre lot
• Built 1979
• Listed 40 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking
• Utilities: Electric service available; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Multi-family property
• Construction: Stucco and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built with public-record living area
• Exterior features: Foothill lot setting; Two levels

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator in each unit; Stove in each unit
• Bathrooms: Six bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and cooling; Property has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Refrigerator included in all units; Stove included in all units; No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: On-site utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $729k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($44k/yr) — positive. Per door: $911/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $729k).
• Recommended offer: $707k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 3.4% in Oakhurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#911 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Oakhurst Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #917 of 1,571 statewide, top 60%, 352 students, 64% FRL); Oak Creek Intermediate (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #183 of 498 statewide, top 38%, 204 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $204k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($707k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $491k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $707,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.43%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $114,023
• Equity at exit: $108,696

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $398,138
• Equity at exit: $63,031

Cash invested: $204,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93644

• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 22.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,823
• Tax from tax record: −$602 /mo · $7,222/yr
• Insurance: −$304
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,226
• Net cashflow: $3,645

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,985

Max offer price $729,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,058	-5% $3,852	+0% $3,645	+5% $3,439	+10% $3,233
Rent	-10% $2,808	-5% $3,227	+0% $3,645	+5% $4,064	+10% $4,483
Rate	-1.0pp $4,013	-0.5pp $3,831	base $3,645	+0.5pp $3,457	+1.0pp $3,264

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	3	—	$10,600
Total (4 units)			$10,600

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $182,250
• Closing costs: $21,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $729,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $729,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $729,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $729,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $729,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $729,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $729,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $729,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $729,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $729,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $729,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $729,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $729,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $729,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $729,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $729,000 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $729,000 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $729,000 Active 18 DOM
19. 2026-05-12
    listed $729,000 Active
20. 2025-10-10
    price $800,000
21. 2025-04-14
    price $845,000
22. 2024-10-28
    historical $1,400
23. 2024-10-27
    listed $1,400
24. 2020-02-07
    price $491,000 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Oakhurst Apartments for sale! A 2 story, 6 unit complex. Good rental income. Four of the units are 2 bedroom, 1 bath. Two of the units are 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath. There is a separate utility room for all units to use. Ideal in town location. $499,000

25. 2020-02-07
    soldstatus $491,000 Sold 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Oakhurst Apartments for sale! A 2 story, 6 unit complex. Good rental income. Four of the units are 2 bedroom, 1 bath. Two of the units are 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath. There is a separate utility room for all units to use. Ideal in town location. $499,000

26. 2020-02-07
    soldstatus $491,000 Closed Sale

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Oakhurst Apartments for sale! A 2 story, 6 unit complex. Good rental income. Four of the units are 2 bedroom, 1 bath. Two of the units are 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath. There is a separate utility room for all units to use. Ideal in town location. $499,000

27. 2020-02-07
    soldstatus $491,000

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Oakhurst Apartments for sale! A 2 story, 6 unit complex. Good rental income. Four of the units are 2 bedroom, 1 bath. Two of the units are 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath. There is a separate utility room for all units to use. Ideal in town location. $499,000

28. 2020-01-04
    status Pending Sale

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Oakhurst Apartments for sale! A 2 story, 6 unit complex. Good rental income. Four of the units are 2 bedroom, 1 bath. Two of the units are 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath. There is a separate utility room for all units to use. Ideal in town location. $499,000

29. 2020-01-04
    status Pending 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Oakhurst Apartments for sale! A 2 story, 6 unit complex. Good rental income. Four of the units are 2 bedroom, 1 bath. Two of the units are 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath. There is a separate utility room for all units to use. Ideal in town location. $499,000

30. 2020-01-02
    price $499,900 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Oakhurst Apartments for sale! A 2 story, 6 unit complex. Good rental income. Four of the units are 2 bedroom, 1 bath. Two of the units are 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath. There is a separate utility room for all units to use. Ideal in town location. $499,000

31. 2019-12-23
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Oakhurst Apartments for sale! A 2 story, 6 unit complex. Good rental income. Four of the units are 2 bedroom, 1 bath. Two of the units are 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath. There is a separate utility room for all units to use. Ideal in town location. $499,000

32. 2019-12-23
    status Active 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Oakhurst Apartments for sale! A 2 story, 6 unit complex. Good rental income. Four of the units are 2 bedroom, 1 bath. Two of the units are 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath. There is a separate utility room for all units to use. Ideal in town location. $499,000

33. 2019-10-18
    status Pending 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Oakhurst Apartments for sale! A 2 story, 6 unit complex. Good rental income. Four of the units are 2 bedroom, 1 bath. Two of the units are 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath. There is a separate utility room for all units to use. Ideal in town location. $499,000

34. 2019-10-18
    status Pending Sale

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Oakhurst Apartments for sale! A 2 story, 6 unit complex. Good rental income. Four of the units are 2 bedroom, 1 bath. Two of the units are 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath. There is a separate utility room for all units to use. Ideal in town location. $499,000

35. 2019-10-16
    listed $499,900 Active 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Oakhurst Apartments for sale! A 2 story, 6 unit complex. Good rental income. Four of the units are 2 bedroom, 1 bath. Two of the units are 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath. There is a separate utility room for all units to use. Ideal in town location. $499,000

36. 2019-10-16
    listed $499,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Oakhurst Apartments for sale! A 2 story, 6 unit complex. Good rental income. Four of the units are 2 bedroom, 1 bath. Two of the units are 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath. There is a separate utility room for all units to use. Ideal in town location. $499,000

37. 1989-04-10
    soldstatus $66,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,222 · $602/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,222 · $602/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 50 unhealthy d/yr today · 55 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $127,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,835
• − Property taxes: −$7,222
• − Insurance: −$3,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,176
• − Management: −$10,176
• − Depreciation: −$21,207
• Taxable income: $33,939
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,145
• After-tax cash flow: $35,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Oakhurst

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #24074

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakhurst, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,490

Population outlook (Madera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,915 people
• By 2030: 159,604 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 163,454 · +3.5%
• By 2050: 167,071 · +5.8%
• By 2075: 171,182 · +8.4%
• By 2100: 162,781 · +3.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madera

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.4% · R 59.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.01%
• Current HPI: 259.017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1004.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $729,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $800,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $845,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2024-10-28 Rental Removed $1,400 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-10-27 Listed for Rent $1,400 RENTALBEAST
• 2020-02-07 Price Changed $491,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2020-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $491,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-07 Sold (MLS) $491,000 CRMLS
• 2020-02-07 Sold (MLS) $491,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2020-01-04 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-01-04 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2020-01-02 Price Changed $499,900 FRESNOMLS
• 2019-12-23 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2019-12-23 Relisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2019-10-18 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2019-10-18 Pending — CRMLS
• 2019-10-16 Listed $499,900 CRMLS
• 2019-10-16 Listed $499,900 FRESNOMLS
• 1989-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,222 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.