49 Aubry Ln

Cadiz, KY 42211

$765,000F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,882 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Active · 296 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,839/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,012
• Tax + insurance: −$790
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-3,349/mo
• Annual: $-40,193/yr
• Cap rate: 1.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.76%
• DSCR: 0.17
• 1% rule: 0.24%
• Cash to close: $214,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $765k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-40k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (77.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (76.0% below list).
• It's been on market 296 days — a 12% lower offer ($673k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (77.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#354 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Trigg County (town): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #90 of 165 in KY (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Trigg County Primary School (516 students, 66% FRL); Trigg County Middle School (math 19% / reading 44%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 440 students, 60% FRL); Trigg County High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 617 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Trigg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trigg County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $765k implies a 189% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.0% vs local median 3.6% in Cadiz — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 296 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 77% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.