49 Aubry Ln · Cadiz, KY 42211

$765,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,882 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 296 Days on market

Built 1966 2.29 ac lot $265/sqft · 56% above area Est $677k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.7/15.0
• Cash flow +0.4/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This private "WATERFRONT OASIS OVERLOOKING LAKE BARKLEY" awaits a new owner!! This property has everything you could imagine in a LAKEHOUSE!! An updated brick home that offers 5 bedrooms, 2 baths, open concept eat-in kitchen and family room, screened porch area with a great lake view, living room, office, 2 bedrooms, 1 bath and primary ensuite with massive walk-in closet all located on the main level and 2 additional bedrooms upstairs. Step outside to the inground pool area with pool house that features a covered sitting area, outdoor grilling station, full bath and storage room for pool supplies, also for golf lovers there is a unique par 3 hole, underground concrete storm shelter, 40x60 pole barn to store the lake toys, private 2-slip covered dock, paved drive and sits on 2.29 acres. Pre-approval or proof of funds is required to schedule showings. Start making memories today! Price Reduced $765,000

Key facts

• Waterfront oasis
• Private dock
• Lake view

Tags

• WATERFRONT OASIS
• LAKE VIEW
• INGROUND POOL
• POOL HOUSE
• OUTDOOR GRILLING STATION
• PRIVATE DOCK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $765k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-40k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (77.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (76.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (77.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.0% vs local median 3.6% in Cadiz — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#354 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Trigg County (town): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #90 of 165 in KY (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Trigg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trigg County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 296 days — a 12% lower offer ($673k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $765k implies a 189% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,317 (77.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 296 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 77% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.24% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.76%
• DSCR: 0.17
• GRM: 34.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $677,126
• List price: $765,000
• Delta: 12.98%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
61 Natchez Trce	0.52mi	3/2.0	2,960 (+3%)	2mo	$300,000	$101	66
715 Riverview Trl	0.60mi	3/3.0	2,751 (-4%)	1mo	$490,000	$178	63
91 Cherokee Ct	0.63mi	3/2.5	2,792 (-3%)	2mo	$500,000	$179	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -54.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-337,557
• Equity at exit: $114,064

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.66×
• Total profit: $-569,725
• Equity at exit: $66,143

Cash invested: $214,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42211

• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 34.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,839 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,012
• Tax from tax record: −$472 /mo · $5,660/yr
• Insurance: −$319
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-3,349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,079

Max offer price $173,317

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,916	-5% $-3,133	+0% $-3,349	+5% $-3,566	+10% $-3,782
Rent	-10% $-3,495	-5% $-3,422	+0% $-3,349	+5% $-3,277	+10% $-3,204
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,964	-0.5pp $-3,155	base $-3,349	+0.5pp $-3,548	+1.0pp $-3,749

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $191,250
• Closing costs: $22,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $765,000 Active 296 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $765,000 Active 294 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $765,000 Active 293 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $765,000 Active 292 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $765,000 Active 291 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $765,000 Active 290 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $765,000 Active 288 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $765,000 Active 287 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $765,000 Active 284 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $765,000 Active 283 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $765,000 Active 282 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $765,000 Active 279 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $765,000 Active 278 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $765,000 Active 277 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $765,000 Active 276 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $765,000 Active 275 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $765,000 Active 274 DOM
18. 2026-03-17
    price $765,000 924-char remark

    Show marketing remark (924 chars)

    This private "WATERFRONT OASIS OVERLOOKING LAKE BARKLEY" awaits a new owner!! This property has everything you could imagine in a LAKEHOUSE!! An updated brick home that offers 5 bedrooms, 2 baths, open concept eat-in kitchen and family room, screened porch area with a great lake view, living room, office, 2 bedrooms, 1 bath and primary ensuite with massive walk-in closet all located on the main level and 2 additional bedrooms upstairs. Step outside to the inground pool area with pool house that features a covered sitting area, outdoor grilling station, full bath and storage room for pool supplies, also for golf lovers there is a unique par 3 hole, underground concrete storm shelter, 40x60 pole barn to store the lake toys, private 2-slip covered dock, paved drive and sits on 2.29 acres. Pre-approval or proof of funds is required to schedule showings. Start making memories today! Price Reduced $765,000

19. 2025-08-29
    listed $775,000 Active 924-char remark

    Show marketing remark (924 chars)

    This private "WATERFRONT OASIS OVERLOOKING LAKE BARKLEY" awaits a new owner!! This property has everything you could imagine in a LAKEHOUSE!! An updated brick home that offers 5 bedrooms, 2 baths, open concept eat-in kitchen and family room, screened porch area with a great lake view, living room, office, 2 bedrooms, 1 bath and primary ensuite with massive walk-in closet all located on the main level and 2 additional bedrooms upstairs. Step outside to the inground pool area with pool house that features a covered sitting area, outdoor grilling station, full bath and storage room for pool supplies, also for golf lovers there is a unique par 3 hole, underground concrete storm shelter, 40x60 pole barn to store the lake toys, private 2-slip covered dock, paved drive and sits on 2.29 acres. Pre-approval or proof of funds is required to schedule showings. Start making memories today! Price Reduced $765,000

20. 2025-03-19
    listed $799,000 Active
21. 2009-07-02
    soldstatus $265,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,660 · $472/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,579 · $548/mo
• Expected delta: +$919/yr (+$77/mo · 16.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$42,852
• − Property taxes: −$5,660
• − Insurance: −$3,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,765
• − Management: −$1,765
• − Depreciation: −$22,255
• Taxable loss: −$56,055
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13,453
• After-tax cash flow: $-26,739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trigg County
• NCES district ID: 2105580
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $44,636
• Composite: 26.87/100
• National rank: #7100
• State rank: #90 of 165 in KY

Livability — Cadiz

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #354
• US rank: #16772

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,912

Population outlook (Trigg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,071 people
• By 2030: 13,950 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 13,575 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 13,065 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 11,990 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 10,802 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trigg

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.4) · D 23.2% · R 75.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.6pp toward R · 2008: -29.8pp · 2024: -52.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.4 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+49.6 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+29.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.15%
• Current HPI: 130.8351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+188.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $765,000 WKRMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $775,000 WKRMLS
• 2025-03-19 Listed $799,000 WKRMLS
• 2009-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,660 · +96.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.