2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
994 sqft ·
Built 1958
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 117 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,249/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$367
Tax + insurance
−$220
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$262
Net cashflow
$401/mo
Annual
$4,811/yr
Cap rate
13.18%
Cash-on-cash
24.58%
DSCR
2.09
1% rule
1.79%
Cash to close
$19,572
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#199 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
San Angelo ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #627 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 273 students, 89% FRL); Lone Star Middle (math 28% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 903 students, 63% FRL); Central H S (math 22% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 3,065 students, 48% FRL).
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.5%/yr); 347 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 3.8% in San Angelo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: Kitchen cabinets
— The cabinets are outdated and show signs of wear.
Moderate: Bathroom fixtures
— The fixtures are outdated and show signs of wear.
Minor: Exterior siding
— There is some discoloration and minor damage, which can be repaired.
Major: Flooring
— The flooring is in poor condition and needs to be replaced.
Minor: Interior walls
— There is some discoloration and minor damage, which can be repaired.
Minor: Landscaping
— The landscaping is overgrown and needs trimming and maintenance.
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