364 Birkdale Dr

Daytona Beach, FL 32124

$466,000D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,830 sqft · Built 2024 · Land · Pending · 401 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,162/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,444
• Tax + insurance: −$309
• HOA: −$85
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$664
• Net cashflow: $-339/mo
• Annual: $-4,073/yr
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.12%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $130,480

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $466k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-339 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $406k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $316k (32.1% below list).
• It's been on market 401 days — a 12% lower offer ($410k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $316k (32.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#46 in FL, #867 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D-.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Champion Elementary School (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,437 of 2,144 statewide, top 68%, 584 students, 70% FRL); Mainland High School (math 30% / reading 37%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,855 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 51% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 401 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.