17405 Jersey Way

Lakeville, MN 55044

$339,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,166 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,474/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax + insurance: −$463
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-291/mo
• Annual: $-3,495/yr
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.67%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $95,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-291 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (27.2% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $247k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#25 in MN, #711 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lakeville Public School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #21 of 301 in MN (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Huddleston Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #265 of 857 statewide, top 35%, 506 students, 33% FRL); Kenwood Trail Middle School (math 49% / reading 59%, grade B-, #48 of 258 statewide, top 19%, 777 students, 34% FRL); Lakeville North High (math 55% / reading 70%, grade B-, #33 of 471 statewide, top 7%, 1,796 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools average 27% FRL vs 10% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 728 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Lakeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.