17405 Jersey Way · Lakeville, MN 55044

$339,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,166 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1968 0.36 ac lot $292/sqft · 11% above area Est $414k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming mid-century rambler offering true one-level living in the heart of Lakeville, set on a beautiful lot just over 1/3 acre. Step in from the inviting front porch to a bright living room filled with natural light. The spacious kitchen features abundant cabinetry and a comfortable eat-in area, with sliding glass doors leading to a porch overlooking the expansive backyard. The main level includes three bedrooms and an updated full bath. The attached garage is a standout, featuring a bonus heated workshop/studio with space comparable to an additional two-car garage—ideal for hobbies, projects, or extra storage. The lower level is unfinished and includes a laundry/mechanical area, of

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Sliding glass doors
• Bright living room

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• COMFORTABLE EAT IN AREA
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Conventional financing indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached heated garage with 2 parking spaces (garage dimensions approximately 23x22)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Natural gas; Electric service with circuit breakers (100 amp)
• Home design: Single-story (one level); Residential property; Main entry on the main level
• Construction: Block foundation; Asphalt roof (over 8 years old)
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Deck and front porch; Tree coverage (medium)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with center island and kitchen window; Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Bedroom sizes include 15x11, 10x9, and 13x9
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Hardwood floors; Main-floor primary bedroom; Porch; Wood-burning fireplace in the family room; Main-floor full bathroom; Breakfast area / eat-in kitchen / kitchen-dining combination
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry room located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-291 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Lakeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#25 in MN, #711 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lakeville Public School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #21 of 301 in MN (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Huddleston Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #265 of 857 statewide, top 35%, 506 students, 33% FRL); Kenwood Trail Middle School (math 49% / reading 59%, grade B-, #48 of 258 statewide, top 19%, 777 students, 34% FRL); Lakeville North High (math 55% / reading 70%, grade B-, #33 of 471 statewide, top 7%, 1,796 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools average 27% FRL vs 10% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 719 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $247,423 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.67%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $413,891
• List price: $339,900
• Delta: -17.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-72,707
• Equity at exit: $50,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-83,380
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55044

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 719
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,474 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax from tax record: −$322 /mo · $3,862/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,843

Max offer price $288,443

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-99	-5% $-195	+0% $-291	+5% $-387	+10% $-484
Rent	-10% $-487	-5% $-389	+0% $-291	+5% $-194	+10% $-96
Rate	-1.0pp $-120	-0.5pp $-205	base $-291	+0.5pp $-379	+1.0pp $-469

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17956 Jubilee Way Lakeville, MN	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1087	$2,260	$2.08	3d	12	0.66mi
16255 Kenyon Ave Lakeville, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1190	$3,092	$2.60	4d	11	1.12mi
9830 Upper 161st St W Lakeville, MN	2.0	1.0	1181	$1,700	$1.44	4d	1	1.27mi
18351 Kenyon Ave Lakeville, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1147	$2,222	$1.94	0d	14	1.36mi
16160 Kendale Dr Lakeville, MN	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.5	2205	$3,632	$1.65	5d	66	1.38mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 951-char remark
2. 2026-05-08
   historical Contingent - Inspection 951-char remark
3. 2026-05-06
   status Active 951-char remark
4. 2026-05-04
   historical Contingent - Inspection 951-char remark
5. 2026-04-28
   listed $339,900 Active 951-char remark
6. 2015-03-24
   soldstatus $160,000
7. 1988-10-01
   soldstatus $90,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,862 · $322/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,862 · $322/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$3,862
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,375
• − Management: −$2,375
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$9,549
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,292
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeville Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2717780
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $96,899
• Composite: 56.36/100
• National rank: #1164
• State rank: #21 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lakeville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #711

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeville, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 64,762
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 64,762
• Household income: $141,551
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 956.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.50%
• Current HPI: 216.0601
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+269.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Sold (MLS) $334,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listed $339,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 1988-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $90,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,862 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.