445 Arvel Cir

Reno, TX 76020

$229,900C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · Built 2016 · Manufactured · Active · 187 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,164/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$378
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $125/mo
• Annual: $1,504/yr
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.34%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $64,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (5.9% below list).
• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,131 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Springtown ISD (town): math 36% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #435 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Springtown Reno El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 372 students, 64% FRL); Springtown Middle (math 33% / reading 45%, grade F, #690 of 1,662 statewide, top 42%, 628 students, 50% FRL); Springtown H S (math 38% / reading 47%, grade F, #721 of 1,632 statewide, top 45%, 1,182 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 594 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.0% in Reno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.