445 Arvel Cir · Reno, TX 76020

$229,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · Manufactured public records · 187 Days on market

Built 2016 1.10 ac lot $123/sqft · 15% below area Est $270k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home sits on oner 1 acre in Azle and offers two living areas with plenty of space to spread out. The home has been freshly painted inside and out, giving it a clean and move-in-ready feel. Enjoy the freedom of country-style living with room for outdoor activities, or future improvements.

Key facts

• Two living areas
• 1.1 acre lot
• Built 2016

Tags

• TWO LIVING AREAS
• ROOM FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.0% in Reno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,131 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Springtown ISD (town): math 36% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #435 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Springtown Reno El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 372 students, 64% FRL); Springtown Middle (math 33% / reading 45%, grade F, #690 of 1,662 statewide, top 42%, 628 students, 50% FRL); Springtown H S (math 38% / reading 47%, grade F, #721 of 1,632 statewide, top 45%, 1,182 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 594 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.34%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,900
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -14.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-30,732
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-22,396
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76020

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 594
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,164 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$282 /mo · $3,390/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,005

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $256	-5% $190	+0% $125	+5% $60	+10% $-5
Rent	-10% $-46	-5% $40	+0% $125	+5% $211	+10% $296
Rate	-1.0pp $241	-0.5pp $184	base $125	+0.5pp $66	+1.0pp $5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1058 E Reno Rd Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,825	$1.35	46d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,900 Active 187 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 405-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 181 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 179 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 178 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,900 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $229,900 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 170 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 169 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 168 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 167 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 166 DOM
17. 2026-02-24
    price $235,000 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    This 4-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home sits on oner 1 acre in Azle and offers two living areas with plenty of space to spread out. The home has been freshly painted inside and out, giving it a clean and move-in-ready feel. Enjoy the freedom of country-style living with room for outdoor activities, or future improvements.

18. 2026-01-06
    price $245,000 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    This 4-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home sits on oner 1 acre in Azle and offers two living areas with plenty of space to spread out. The home has been freshly painted inside and out, giving it a clean and move-in-ready feel. Enjoy the freedom of country-style living with room for outdoor activities, or future improvements.

19. 2025-12-16
    listed $249,999 Active 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    This 4-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home sits on oner 1 acre in Azle and offers two living areas with plenty of space to spread out. The home has been freshly painted inside and out, giving it a clean and move-in-ready feel. Enjoy the freedom of country-style living with room for outdoor activities, or future improvements.

20. 2021-10-08
    soldstatus
21. 2012-08-06
    soldstatus
22. 2012-08-03
    soldstatus Closed 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    COUNTRY LIVING - on your pretty, wooded 1.1 acre with nice 3 bedroom, 2 bath home! Home is well kept featuring open floor plan! The home has wood burning fireplace, kitchen equipped with plenty of counterspace and breakfast bar. The fridge, washer & dryer remain for the new buyers! Master bedroom has garden tub, shower and dual sinks! There is a front deck, back porch and storage building. (Buyer to verify all s. f. , ISD, measurements. )

23. 2012-07-27
    status Pending 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    COUNTRY LIVING - on your pretty, wooded 1.1 acre with nice 3 bedroom, 2 bath home! Home is well kept featuring open floor plan! The home has wood burning fireplace, kitchen equipped with plenty of counterspace and breakfast bar. The fridge, washer & dryer remain for the new buyers! Master bedroom has garden tub, shower and dual sinks! There is a front deck, back porch and storage building. (Buyer to verify all s. f. , ISD, measurements. )

24. 2012-07-19
    historical Active Option Contract 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    COUNTRY LIVING - on your pretty, wooded 1.1 acre with nice 3 bedroom, 2 bath home! Home is well kept featuring open floor plan! The home has wood burning fireplace, kitchen equipped with plenty of counterspace and breakfast bar. The fridge, washer & dryer remain for the new buyers! Master bedroom has garden tub, shower and dual sinks! There is a front deck, back porch and storage building. (Buyer to verify all s. f. , ISD, measurements. )

25. 2012-07-09
    listed $39,900 Active 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    COUNTRY LIVING - on your pretty, wooded 1.1 acre with nice 3 bedroom, 2 bath home! Home is well kept featuring open floor plan! The home has wood burning fireplace, kitchen equipped with plenty of counterspace and breakfast bar. The fridge, washer & dryer remain for the new buyers! Master bedroom has garden tub, shower and dual sinks! There is a front deck, back porch and storage building. (Buyer to verify all s. f. , ISD, measurements. )

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,390 · $282/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,207 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$817/yr (+$68/mo · 24.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$3,390
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,077
• − Management: −$2,077
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$2,296
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$551
• After-tax cash flow: $2,055/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springtown ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841280
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $56,136
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5474
• State rank: #435 of 826 in TX

Livability — Reno

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1131
• US rank: #20008

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Reno, TX
• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,602
• Household income: $87,298
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 433.0

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.72%
• Current HPI: 287.155
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.31%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+489.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $235,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $245,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-16 Listed $249,999 NTREIS
• 2021-10-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-08-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-08-03 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2012-07-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2012-07-19 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2012-07-09 Listed $39,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,390 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.