810 NW 21st Ct

Miami, FL 33125

$564,999D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,453 sqft · Built 1947 · SingleFamily · Active · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,886/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,963
• Tax + insurance: −$997
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,026
• Net cashflow: $-100/mo
• Annual: $-1,200/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.25%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $158,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $565k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $547k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $489k (13.5% below list).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($497k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $489k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#177 in FL, #2,724 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Citrus Grove Elementary School (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 866 students, 65% FRL); Citrus Grove Middle School (math 19% / reading 21%, grade F, #558 of 571 statewide, top 98%, 781 students, 66% FRL); Miami Jackson Senior High School (math 13% / reading 22%, grade F, #575 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,305 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-27 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 241 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $450k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 1.9% in Miami — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?