126 Hover Ave

Germantown, NY 12526

$365,000C-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,968 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,969/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax + insurance: −$478
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $-47/mo
• Annual: $-558/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.55%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $102,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $365k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-558/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $357k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (18.6% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $297k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#441 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Germantown Central School District (rural): math 54% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #387 of 755 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $102k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.