126 Hover Ave · Germantown, NY 12526

$365,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,968 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1983 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Germantown Ranch with beautiful Catskill Mountain views makes for a wonderful opportunity to invest in the improvements needed for this home to become exactly what you want it to be. Custom built in 1983, the structure of the home includes a spacious living room overlooking the view, formal dining room, country kitchen, primary bedroom with half bath, guest bedroom, full bath and laundry area on the upper level. The walk-out lower level includes 2 additional bedrooms and another full bath as well as 3 garage spaces. Central air conditioning. Large wraparound open deck. Driveway access from both levels.

Key facts

• Country kitchen
• Formal dining room
• Guest bedroom

Tags

• CATSKILL MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• COUNTRY KITCHEN
• PRIMARY BEDROOM WITH HALF BATH
• GUEST BEDROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 spaces; Garage faces side; Paved driveway
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-family house; One level; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Wrap-around deck; Property has views; Sloped, gently sloping lot; County road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom located downstairs
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the main level; Partially finished basement with storage space and walk-out access
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-558/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $357k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $297k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#441 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Germantown Central School District (rural): math 54% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #387 of 755 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $102k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $296,949 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.55%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,320,528
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Dales Bridge Rd	0.57mi	2/2.5	1,865 (-5%)	20mo	$1,252,000	$671	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $195,791
• Equity at exit: $328,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.66×
• Total profit: $578,832
• Equity at exit: $709,115

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12526

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,969 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,915/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,028

Max offer price $356,783

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $365,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 610-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $365,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,915 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,042 · $420/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,127/yr (+$94/mo · 28.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,634
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$3,915
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,851
• − Management: −$2,851
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$6,871
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,649
• After-tax cash flow: $1,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Germantown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612030
• Math proficiency: 54% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,242
• Composite: 47.76/100
• National rank: #4894
• State rank: #387 of 755 in NY

Livability — Germantown

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #441
• US rank: #7728

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,427

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.93%
• Current HPI: 511.9627
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $365,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,915 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.