289 Calkins Camp Rd

Danville, VT 05828

$159,900D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,728 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 313 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,285/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$308
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-131/mo
• Annual: $-1,575/yr
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.52%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (19.6% below list).
• It's been on market 313 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#74 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 313 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.