289 Calkins Camp Rd · Danville, VT 05828

$159,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 313 Days on market

Built 1950 1.62 ac lot $93/sqft · 56% below area ↓ 15% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your very own slice of paradise! Nestled on a beautifully landscaped 1.62 acres, this enchanting colonial house combines classic elegance with modern comfort, perfect for those seeking a serene lifestyle just moments away from town. This property presents a compelling investment opportunity with solid potential for value enhancement. The three-bedroom, one-bathroom configuration offers versatility for various renovation approaches. With thoughtful updates and improvements, this residence could be transformed to meet current market demands. The foundation provides a strong starting point for investors or buyers seeking to customize a property to their specific vision and preferences.

Key facts

• Colonial house
• 1.62 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• LANDSCAPED 1.62 ACRES
• COLONIAL HOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#74 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 313 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $128,492 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 313 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.52%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,015
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -55.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51 Bruce Badger Memorial Hwy	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,552 (-10%)	22mo	$347,000	$224	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $78,769
• Equity at exit: $144,051

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $238,627
• Equity at exit: $310,651

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05828

• Home prices YoY: 17.4%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,285 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,894/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,451

Max offer price $136,709

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-41	-5% $-86	+0% $-131	+5% $-177	+10% $-222
Rent	-10% $-233	-5% $-182	+0% $-131	+5% $-81	+10% $-30
Rate	-1.0pp $-51	-0.5pp $-91	base $-131	+0.5pp $-173	+1.0pp $-215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $159,900 Pending 313 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 313 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 312 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 311 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 310 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 309 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 308 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,900 Active 307 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 304 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,900 Active 303 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,900 Active 302 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 300 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 298 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $159,900 Active 297 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 296 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 295 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    price $169,900 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Welcome to your very own slice of paradise! Nestled on a beautifully landscaped 1.62 acres, this enchanting colonial house combines classic elegance with modern comfort, perfect for those seeking a serene lifestyle just moments away from town. This property presents a compelling investment opportunity with solid potential for value enhancement. The three-bedroom, one-bathroom configuration offers versatility for various renovation approaches. With thoughtful updates and improvements, this residence could be transformed to meet current market demands. The foundation provides a strong starting point for investors or buyers seeking to customize a property to their specific vision and preferences.

18. 2026-04-07
    price $179,900 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Welcome to your very own slice of paradise! Nestled on a beautifully landscaped 1.62 acres, this enchanting colonial house combines classic elegance with modern comfort, perfect for those seeking a serene lifestyle just moments away from town. This property presents a compelling investment opportunity with solid potential for value enhancement. The three-bedroom, one-bathroom configuration offers versatility for various renovation approaches. With thoughtful updates and improvements, this residence could be transformed to meet current market demands. The foundation provides a strong starting point for investors or buyers seeking to customize a property to their specific vision and preferences.

19. 2026-01-19
    price $189,900 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Welcome to your very own slice of paradise! Nestled on a beautifully landscaped 1.62 acres, this enchanting colonial house combines classic elegance with modern comfort, perfect for those seeking a serene lifestyle just moments away from town. This property presents a compelling investment opportunity with solid potential for value enhancement. The three-bedroom, one-bathroom configuration offers versatility for various renovation approaches. With thoughtful updates and improvements, this residence could be transformed to meet current market demands. The foundation provides a strong starting point for investors or buyers seeking to customize a property to their specific vision and preferences.

20. 2025-11-07
    status Active 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Welcome to your very own slice of paradise! Nestled on a beautifully landscaped 1.62 acres, this enchanting colonial house combines classic elegance with modern comfort, perfect for those seeking a serene lifestyle just moments away from town. This property presents a compelling investment opportunity with solid potential for value enhancement. The three-bedroom, one-bathroom configuration offers versatility for various renovation approaches. With thoughtful updates and improvements, this residence could be transformed to meet current market demands. The foundation provides a strong starting point for investors or buyers seeking to customize a property to their specific vision and preferences.

21. 2025-11-07
    historical 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Welcome to your very own slice of paradise! Nestled on a beautifully landscaped 1.62 acres, this enchanting colonial house combines classic elegance with modern comfort, perfect for those seeking a serene lifestyle just moments away from town. This property presents a compelling investment opportunity with solid potential for value enhancement. The three-bedroom, one-bathroom configuration offers versatility for various renovation approaches. With thoughtful updates and improvements, this residence could be transformed to meet current market demands. The foundation provides a strong starting point for investors or buyers seeking to customize a property to their specific vision and preferences.

22. 2025-10-27
    soldstatus $237,495
23. 2025-08-08
    listed $199,900 Active 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Welcome to your very own slice of paradise! Nestled on a beautifully landscaped 1.62 acres, this enchanting colonial house combines classic elegance with modern comfort, perfect for those seeking a serene lifestyle just moments away from town. This property presents a compelling investment opportunity with solid potential for value enhancement. The three-bedroom, one-bathroom configuration offers versatility for various renovation approaches. With thoughtful updates and improvements, this residence could be transformed to meet current market demands. The foundation provides a strong starting point for investors or buyers seeking to customize a property to their specific vision and preferences.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,894 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,966 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: +$72/yr (+$6/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,419
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,894
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,234
• − Management: −$1,234
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$4,351
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,044
• After-tax cash flow: $-531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Danville

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #16492

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment C Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,042

Population outlook (Caledonia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,828 people
• By 2030: 28,820 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 26,262 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 23,780 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 18,516 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 13,647 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Slovak 13% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caledonia

• 2024 margin: D (+12.4) · D 54.5% · R 42.0% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: 23.3pp · 2024: 12.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.4 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+7.0 2012: D+22.9 2008: D+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 43.58%
• Current HPI: 294.4133
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $169,900 PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $179,900 PrimeMLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $189,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-11-07 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2025-11-07 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2025-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $237,495 Public Records
• 2025-08-08 Listed $199,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+15.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,894 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.