1406 Canterbury Rd

Experiment, GA 30223

$184,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,964 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 128 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,539/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax + insurance: −$339
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $-88/mo
• Annual: $-1,055/yr
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.05%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $51,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $184k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (16.4% below list).
• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#500 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Griffin-Spalding County (suburban): math 13% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #151 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Atkinson Elementary School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,228 statewide, top 100%, 431 students, 98% FRL); Cowan Road Middle School (math 8% / reading 14%, grade F, #426 of 470 statewide, top 91%, 543 students, 98% FRL); Griffin High School (math 7% / reading 19%, grade F, #331 of 424 statewide, top 78%, 1,498 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 68% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 440 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 342 units permitted in Spalding County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Spalding County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 10 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 39% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Experiment — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.