1406 Canterbury Rd · Experiment, GA 30223

$184,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,964 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1965 0.69 ac lot $94/sqft · 16% below area Est $247k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this spacious gem! This 4 sided brick ranch home in the heart of Griffin has 4 bedrooms & 3 full baths that rest on .69 acres. This gem has a huge eat in kitchen, formal living room with vaulted ceiling, separate family room with a cozy fireplace. It also boast of original hardwood flooring throughout. Home is in need of some TLC but offers great potential for that savvy, handy buyer. Priced to sell!

Key facts

• 0.69 acre lot
• Garage
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Experiment — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#500 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Griffin-Spalding County (suburban): math 13% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #151 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Atkinson Elementary School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,228 statewide, top 100%, 431 students, 98% FRL); Cowan Road Middle School (math 8% / reading 14%, grade F, #426 of 470 statewide, top 91%, 543 students, 98% FRL); Griffin High School (math 7% / reading 19%, grade F, #331 of 424 statewide, top 78%, 1,498 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 68% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 440 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 342 units permitted in Spalding County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spalding County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 39% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,870 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.05%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,661
• List price: $184,000
• Delta: -25.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Houston St	0.32mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,914 (-2%)	15mo	$50,000	$26	62
1303 Greenbriar Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,792 (-9%)	21mo	$208,000	$116	52
146 Peachtree St	0.73mi	4/1.0 (+1)	2,000 (+2%)	9mo	$30,000	$15	42
408A E Northwoods Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,716 (-13%)	22mo	$235,000	$137	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-34,847
• Equity at exit: $27,435

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-35,201
• Equity at exit: $15,909

Cash invested: $51,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30223

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,539 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,143/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $-88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,650

Max offer price $168,463

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $16	-5% $-36	+0% $-88	+5% $-140	+10% $-192
Rent	-10% $-210	-5% $-149	+0% $-88	+5% $-27	+10% $34
Rate	-1.0pp $5	-0.5pp $-41	base $-88	+0.5pp $-136	+1.0pp $-184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,000
• Closing costs: $5,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 W Lexington Ave Griffin, GA	3.0	2.5	2146	$1,596	$0.74	7d	1	0.71mi
117 Realty St Griffin, GA	3.0	1.0	1928	$999	$0.52	26d	1	0.95mi
114 Blanton Ave Griffin, GA	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,523	$1.20	22d	1	0.97mi
732 Williams St Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	1287	$1,200	$0.93	7d	1	1.24mi
615 N 17th St Griffin, GA	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,300	$0.86	21d	1	1.26mi
324 Adams St Griffin, GA	3.0	2.0	1363	$1,595	$1.17	26d	1	1.34mi
352 Adams St Griffin, GA	3.0	1.5	1296	$1,350	$1.04	45d	1	1.34mi
502 W Broadway St Griffin, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1133	$1,745	$1.54	0d	17	1.39mi
592 Elles Way Griffin, GA	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,350	$1.07	45d	1	1.42mi
136 Henry Burch Dr Griffin, GA	3.0	2.5	1886	$1,895	$1.00	14d	1	1.46mi
363 N 16th St Griffin, GA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,550	$1.19	46d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $184,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,000 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $184,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $184,000 Back On Market 114 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-03-16
    price $184,000 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Take a look at this spacious gem! This 4 sided brick ranch home in the heart of Griffin has 4 bedrooms & 3 full baths that rest on .69 acres. This gem has a huge eat in kitchen, formal living room with vaulted ceiling, separate family room with a cozy fireplace. It also boast of original hardwood flooring throughout. Home is in need of some TLC but offers great potential for that savvy, handy buyer. Priced to sell!

12. 2026-03-02
    status Back On Market 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Take a look at this spacious gem! This 4 sided brick ranch home in the heart of Griffin has 4 bedrooms & 3 full baths that rest on .69 acres. This gem has a huge eat in kitchen, formal living room with vaulted ceiling, separate family room with a cozy fireplace. It also boast of original hardwood flooring throughout. Home is in need of some TLC but offers great potential for that savvy, handy buyer. Priced to sell!

13. 2026-02-23
    status Under Contract 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Take a look at this spacious gem! This 4 sided brick ranch home in the heart of Griffin has 4 bedrooms & 3 full baths that rest on .69 acres. This gem has a huge eat in kitchen, formal living room with vaulted ceiling, separate family room with a cozy fireplace. It also boast of original hardwood flooring throughout. Home is in need of some TLC but offers great potential for that savvy, handy buyer. Priced to sell!

14. 2026-02-02
    listed $195,500 New 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Take a look at this spacious gem! This 4 sided brick ranch home in the heart of Griffin has 4 bedrooms & 3 full baths that rest on .69 acres. This gem has a huge eat in kitchen, formal living room with vaulted ceiling, separate family room with a cozy fireplace. It also boast of original hardwood flooring throughout. Home is in need of some TLC but offers great potential for that savvy, handy buyer. Priced to sell!

15. 2026-01-30
    historical $195,500 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Take a look at this spacious gem! This 4 sided brick ranch home in the heart of Griffin has 4 bedrooms & 3 full baths that rest on .69 acres. This gem has a huge eat in kitchen, formal living room with vaulted ceiling, separate family room with a cozy fireplace. It also boast of original hardwood flooring throughout. Home is in need of some TLC but offers great potential for that savvy, handy buyer. Priced to sell!

16. 2025-11-07
    historical
17. 2025-09-14
    price $235,000
18. 2025-08-15
    status Back On Market
19. 2025-08-11
    historical
20. 2025-06-27
    price $267,000
21. 2025-05-23
    status Back On Market
22. 2025-05-16
    historical On Hold
23. 2025-05-15
    listed $272,000 New
24. 2022-09-08
    soldstatus $231,500
25. 2022-09-02
    soldstatus $231,500 Sold
26. 2022-09-02
    soldstatus $231,500 Closed
27. 2022-08-24
    status Under Contract
28. 2022-08-24
    status Pending
29. 2022-08-05
    price $250,000
30. 2022-08-05
    price $250,000
31. 2022-07-18
    listed $275,000 New
32. 2022-07-18
    listed $275,000 Active
33. 2020-04-30
    soldstatus $34,000 Sold
34. 2020-04-22
    price $35,000
35. 2020-04-22
    status Under Contract
36. 2020-04-22
    status Back on Market
37. 2020-04-18
    status Under Contract
38. 2020-04-14
    price $53,000
39. 2020-04-03
    listed $58,000 New
40. 2019-11-27
    historical
41. 2019-11-21
    price $94,900
42. 2019-10-31
    price $99,750
43. 2019-10-22
    price $105,000
44. 2019-10-18
    price $109,250
45. 2019-09-16
    listed $115,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,143 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,143 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 39% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,307
• − Property taxes: −$3,143
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,477
• − Management: −$1,477
• − Depreciation: −$5,353
• Taxable loss: −$4,213
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,011
• After-tax cash flow: $-44/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Griffin-Spalding County
• NCES district ID: 1302520
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,895
• Composite: 13.71/100
• National rank: #9496
• State rank: #151 of 174 in GA

Livability — Experiment

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #500
• US rank: #22868

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Experiment, GA
• County: Spalding County · 66,676 people
• City population: 38,262
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 38,262
• Household income: $59,054
• Rent vs Own: 39.5% rent · 60.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Spalding County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,015 people
• By 2030: 61,689 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 57,932 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 53,474 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 43,228 · -31.4%
• By 2100: 32,290 · -48.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spalding

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.4% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+24.2 2012: R+20.0 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.92%
• Current HPI: 225.7933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.34%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+60.0% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $184,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-02 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-02-23 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $195,500 GAMLS
• 2026-01-30 Coming Soon $195,500 GAMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-09-14 Price Changed $235,000 GAMLS
• 2025-08-15 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $267,000 GAMLS
• 2025-05-23 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-05-16 Delisted — GAMLS
• 2025-05-15 Listed $272,000 GAMLS
• 2022-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $231,500 Public Records
• 2022-09-02 Sold (MLS) $231,500 FMLS
• 2022-09-02 Sold (MLS) $231,500 GAMLS
• 2022-08-24 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-08-24 Pending — FMLS
• 2022-08-05 Price Changed $250,000 GAMLS
• 2022-08-05 Price Changed $250,000 FMLS
• 2022-07-18 Listed $275,000 FMLS
• 2022-07-18 Listed $275,000 GAMLS
• 2020-04-30 Sold (MLS) $34,000 GAMLS
• 2020-04-22 Price Changed $35,000 GAMLS
• 2020-04-22 Pending — GAMLS
• 2020-04-22 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2020-04-18 Pending — GAMLS
• 2020-04-14 Price Changed $53,000 GAMLS
• 2020-04-03 Listed $58,000 GAMLS
• 2019-11-27 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2019-11-21 Price Changed $94,900 GAMLS
• 2019-10-31 Price Changed $99,750 GAMLS
• 2019-10-22 Price Changed $105,000 GAMLS
• 2019-10-18 Price Changed $109,250 GAMLS
• 2019-09-16 Listed $115,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,143 · +83.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.