1950 Northshore Dr

Greers Ferry, AR 72067

$158,900D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Active · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,053/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$833
• Tax + insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $-266/mo
• Annual: $-3,196/yr
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.18%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $44,492

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-266 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (33.7% below list).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#251 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• West Side School District (rural): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #118 of 238 in AR (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cleburne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cleburne County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $159k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 1.8% in Greers Ferry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.